Jerry Palm has his first bracket projection up

[YCN]

He bases his bracket projection not on his RPI numbers, but on his own personal take of who will make the field. Of course RPI is part of it, but he lets his own observations trump those numbers.

He has six Big 12 teams in the field, but not including Texas. The six teams and their seeds:

2 Baylor
3 Oklahoma
6 Kansas State
7 Missouri
9 Kansas
9 Texas A&M

I personally disagree with his conclusions in several ways, as well as the number of teams he projects to get in from the Big 12. I really believe that both Texas and Tech will get in, although probably not with the seeds that they would have hoped for at the beginning of the season. And I really believe that Nebraska is going to make it this year, a really strong gut feeling that they are being overlooked.

And I think one or more of the teams he lists as making the field may not get in. I think he's in the group of people who think that because two Texas teams have gotten off to a rocky start, that somehow the conference is weak this year. But the fact that our collective RPI is better than the SEC, Pac-10, Big East and Big Ten tells me that all of these subjective thinkers are wrong. We are a tough league, but we don't have any true heavyweights at the top other than Baylor right now. But by the end of the season, the truth will come out.

http://www.collegerpi.com/women

[swok34]

well, that's interesting.....

how does he justify Baylor with a #2 seed and Oklahoma with a #3 seed, but OU wins the conference tourney :confused:

and he projects Texas to finish with #11 RPI and 3 SOS ABOVE OU's RPI of #12 with 7 SOS.

and Texas doesn't make the tourney??

[YCN]

well, that's interesting.....

how does he justify Baylor with a #2 seed and Oklahoma with a #3 seed, but OU wins the conference tourney :confused:

and he projects Texas to finish with #11 RPI and 3 SOS ABOVE OU's RPI of #12 with 7 SOS.

and Texas doesn't make the tourney??
He doesn't project conference tournaments, but OU gets an asterisk as a current leader in the conference, not as conference champion. He projects Baylor and OU to tie in conference play at 13-3, and his opinion is that Baylor gets a higher seed. That would make sense if Baylor had only four losses and Oklahoma seven.

And I think he feels that Texas' RPI numbers are inflated because of their #2 rated SOS. He may be right, since Texas only has one RPI top 25 win on a neutral court, and their next-highest ranked win over an opponent is #61.

Texas is projected to finish 19-8, but my guess is that he thinks they will lose a few games that their RPI says they shouldn't.

[swok34]

http://espn-att.starwave.com/media/ncw/2006/0111/photo/i_paris_412.jpg

Ah, Charlie Creme has a bracket out.......and they play it up with a photo of CP on the front. ;)

Bracketology (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncw/bracketology)

A lot of slow starts for some big names (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncw/columns/story?columnist=creme_charlie&id=2288065)

[Jimi]

Yup, that's the real CP. Some misguided souls think CP is Candace Parker.

[swok34]

I finally learned to copy and paste these ESPN "chats" before they hide it under their "insider stuff"......... :cool:

here was his comment out of Monday's chat:

Leslie (Houston, Texas): Courtney Paris has been dominating even against double- and triple-teams. How good can this freshman become, and how do you defend her?

Charlie Creme: (11:29 AM ET ) The sky is the limit for Paris. Tonight should be fun with Paris facing Davenport. If Candance Parker wasn't playing right now, no one would be able to stop talking about Courtney Paris.

[Skerfan]

And I really believe that Nebraska is going to make it this year, a really strong gut feeling that they are being overlooked.

Thanks YCN! The :NU: have been playing well over the last several weeks. We'll see if that continues. There's a pretty big game in about an 1 1/2 at the Devaney. Oh my gosh I can't wait.

[Bball Girl]

It seems way too early in conference play to begin projecting brackets. We have what 1 weekish under our belts with a few conference having 2 weeks.

I'm not sure if Tech is going to make it this year, it will be heartbreaking if they don't. But counting out Texas and counting in Kansas when Kansas hasn't been tested much on the road seems really wrong. I'd love to see KU go to the NCAA...but I don't think we know enough about them yet to make that prediction.

But in general I don't think we know enough about any of us except maybe Baylor and OU to make a prediction.

[YCN]

[IMG]Ah, Charlie Creme has a bracket out.......and they play it up with a photo of CP on the front. ;)
By my count, here are the number of bids by conference on Creme's list:

7 ACC
7 Big East
6 Big 12
5 Pac-10
5 SEC
4 Big Ten
3 Mountain West
3 Atlantic 10
2 Sun Belt
22 single bid conferences


There's no way I can believe that the Pac-10 will get 5 bids. The entire conference has exactly one top 25 and three top 50 wins in non-conference play this year. That's pitiful.

There are only 6 possible candidates for those 5 bids, and one of them won't have the conference record or overall record to make it. At least one more will be doomed by at least two of the following four criteria: record in the last 10 games, performance in the conference tournament, marginal RPI outside the cutoff point for selection, or lack of quality wins, especially away from home and out of conference.

I agree that the ACC can and probably will get 7 bids but I just can't see 7 for the Big East. While the top is strong, the depth just isn't there to support that many bids. The conference only ranks #6 in cummulative RPI. Out of 16 teams, there are 5 that absolulely have NO chance of making the tournament without winning the conference tournament. And if one does, it will take another team out.

Out of those 11, there won't be enough with good enough records overall and in conference to support more than 8 possible bids, and more than one of those is going to melt down during the season. Notre Dame is already looking very shaky, and Louisville and St. John's have good records against mediocre competition, and likely will suffer a lot of losses to the better conference teams. Six bids is much more believable, and only five wouldn't shock me.

Six bids seems a likelihood for the Big 12, especially considering the number of teams that will have good RPI rankings at the end of the season. When you are in the top two conferences in RPI, the competition causes RPI rankings to gradually rise across the conference as league play continues.

It's just natural, because every conference has an equal number of conference game wins and losses, and the best conferences play the toughest schedules, which increasingly influences three-quarters of the entire RPI calculation. Seven would not shock me, eight would be more than I'd expect, but not necessarily out of the question, especially if a bunch of teams are clumped close together in the final league standings.

I also think that the Mountain West gets three, but disagree on three for the Atlantic 10. I just don't think there's enough depth of quality teams in that conference for it to happen. Two yes, three no. That conference has nine teams at #126 in the RPI or worse. That isn't good for your end-of-season RPI, and there won't be enough wins to spread around for three teams with good enough RPI to make the field.

Remember, the selection committee just last year left out a 27-3 team (Gonzaga) from a lesser conference that had a good enough RPI to be closely considered for the field, because they didn't think the conference was good enough to support two bids.

I also see a great chance of Tulsa making the field. They are favored to win every remaining game this year, their conference isn't terrible, and even with an upset loss they finish the regular season with 23 wins against 4 losses, and a very solid RPI that likely would be good enough alone to make the field.

And a couple of other comments I'd like to make. I'm sick and tired of everyone saying the Big 12 is down this year, when the facts are clearly that it is not. Just because the distribution of power is not what was expected doesn't make this conference any worse than at least the second best conference - and possibly the best conference - in the nation this year. I predict that at least one of Tennessee, LSU, Duke, North Carolina, Maryland and Rutgers will be beaten by a Big 12 team in the NCAA tournament this year, and possibly more.

And I'm not one of those who thinks that Baylor is down this year. They've played a much better schedule this year than to this date last year, and this year through 12 games they are 11-1, when last year through 14 games they were 12-2. Shortly thereafter they lost their 3rd game, and didn't lose again.

This year their RPI is #6 and SOS is #16, compared to their finishing RPI if #9 and SOS of #33 at the end of the regular season last year. Maybe it "appears" that they aren't as good, but I'll believe it when somebody proves that to be the case. They may not have as good a record at the end of the year this year as last because of the improving Big 12, but they very well could be a better team at the end of the year. Until after that 3rd loss last year, Baylor looked like a team missing some ingredients, even more so than this year.

[labcoatguy]

And a couple of other comments I'd like to make. I'm sick and tired of everyone saying the Big 12 is down this year, when the facts are clearly that it is not. Just because the distribution of power is not what was expected doesn't make this conference any worse than at least the second best conference - and possibly the best conference - in the nation this year. I predict that at least one of Tennessee, LSU, Duke, North Carolina, Maryland and Rutgers will be beaten by a Big 12 team in the NCAA tournament this year, and possibly more.

And I'm not one of those who thinks that Baylor is down this year. They've played a much better schedule this year than to this date last year, and this year through 12 games they are 11-1, when last year through 14 games they were 12-2. Shortly thereafter they lost their 3rd game, and didn't lose again.

This year their RPI is #6 and SOS is #16, compared to their finishing RPI if #9 and SOS of #33 at the end of the regular season last year. Maybe it "appears" that they aren't as good, but I'll believe it when somebody proves that to be the case. They may not have as good a record at the end of the year this year as last because of the improving Big 12, but they very well could be a better team at the end of the year. Until after that 3rd loss last year, Baylor looked like a team missing some ingredients, even more so than this year.

Who's saying Baylor is down? What, they lose one game to Missouri, and suddenly they're lacking in ability and execution?

But my main point is to agree with you, YCN, about the power of the conference. Last year, there were 5 really good teams (Baylor, Texas, Tech, K-State, Iowa State), 2 more teams that were decent (Oklahoma, Nebraska), and 5 teams that were pretty bad (Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Colorado, OSU). This year, although it's still much too early to tell for sure, it looks like we've got at least 2 really good teams (Baylor, Oklahoma) and a whopping 8 pretty decent teams (Texas A&M, Kansas, K-State, Missouri, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Iowa State and Texas), with Colorado and OSU being the only whipping boys of the league right now (and even Colorado had a huge win last night). It would be interesting if all of the teams in the middle finished between 7-9 and 10-6 in conference just to see what the selection committee would do.

[swok34]

7-9 and 10-6 in conference just to see what the selection committee would do.

Is that do-able statistically?

[YCN]

7-9 and 10-6 in conference just to see what the selection committee would do.

Is that do-able statistically?Absolutely. Statistically speaking you could have 10 teams finish around 9-7 in conference play.

[BeBe]

You could also have all teams finish 8 - 8 in conference. Every team wins all its conference home games (so of course every team loses all its conference road games). Of course this can't happen this year but its possible any year, up until the first home loss in conference. What would the Big 12 tournament seeding do with that one? As well as the NCAA selection?

[YCN]

You could also have all teams finish 8 - 8 in conference. Every team wins all its conference home games (so of course every team loses all its conference road games). Of course this can't happen this year but its possible any year, up until the first home loss in conference. What would the Big 12 tournament seeding do with that one? As well as the NCAA selection?
A whole lotta coin-flippin goin' on. If all those same 8-8 teams also had good results in non-conference play, I think you'd see the number of bids appropriate to a conference according to their RPI rank, meaning that if the conference was ranked #1 you could see at least 7 bids, #2 at least 6 bids, and so on.

It would truly be a strange situation to have the top conference in RPI have every team in a flat-footed tie for first and last place. I have no idea what might happen in a case like that, but it could be either good or very ugly.

[ChipperF1]

"I'm sick and tired of everyone saying the Big 12 is down this year, when the facts are clearly that it is not.

The only fact that is clear is that its too early to even entertain a bracket guess. I looked at both Jerry Palm and Charlie Cream and they are two very different things before we've even gone 1 lap around the conference.

The Big 12 is a victim of perception. The reason the league is seen as "down" is because the names the imagemakers know are not at the top of the league right now, while the best team in the league is still seen in some quarters as a fluke.

I've maintain that Baylor hasn't gotten the respect they deserve. Whenever Baylor is talked about by the national media covering this sport, they are given short shrift. Their championship is seen as "lucky" and I would even go as far to say that some feel their championship is less than because they didn't beat one of the Bery Convy Teams to win it. I have a word for this, but this is a family message board, so I can't say it.

After that, there is Oklahoma and they have best freshman in the country right now. They certaining have college basketball's #1 sex symbol. They also have a lot of questions and in their last game against one of the heavies, they got bounced by 20.

After that you have a phalynx of teams that will be sweating every RPI point. Texas and Texas Tech are the team the national lack-of-intelligensia know. And one of them has no offense and a team that seems to fraying (TTU), the other has injury concerns and generally is a talented but soft basketball team (Texas).

Then you have the the next group. Missouri is a team we know about, but they don't. They are physical, but need work on fundamentals. They are a sloppy basketball team. Kansas ran the Jabroni table, then beat Texas. But what I see in Kansas is similar to Nebraska a couple of seasons ago. They have veterans who are about as good and consistent as they are going to be. Crystal Kemp is a fine player. But consider players like Erica Hallman and Kaylee Brown, they've always been average-to-below average and there's little reason to believe that all of a sudden they will play at a consistent high level . That is the wall Kansas is at right now. They may break through it to a new evolution, but the odds don't reflect that.
Speaking of Nebraska. Last night showed why they are an iffy chance to make it. They are generally inconsistent and they start two 6-foot 2-inch sissies in position where you can't afford to be soft. Plus, you can't count on their best player to consistently lead the team., and that player admits to that.

Iowa State has the coaching and the temperment to make it. But national book on ISU has always been, "lacks the athleticism" and they do. A similar book goes for Kansas State. Lets be real. These two teams do not beat next level athleticism unless the game is at Hilton and Bramledge.

Texas A&M has a lot of raw talent, but I still see them as learning what it takes to be a competitor day-in, day-out in this league. Their time is coming.

This first month of the season will tell a lot of where we are because the conference is so close and the teams are so close to each other in terms of relative strengths and weaknesses. I don't think there is a league in the country where you have 8-10 teams that are roughly equal.

Anybody downplaying the Big 12 does so at their peril. This league is a tough one, and we've only been three games in the push across the Midwestern Ardennes, so its very early.

At the same time, I caution the defenders of this league not to oversell the changes at this point, because there's a lot of ball to play. Plus, you have to look at the cold, hard, facts. Our teams haven't won many marquee games in the non-conference schedule, except for Baylor.
So far, we have two teams that are looking very good for the NCAAs, but we have another 6-8 teams fighting for maybe 3 spots mainly because of schedule.

Texas and Texas Tech have some lee-way, they have played tough schedule. They haven't won against them, but they've played them. They have to rack up enough conference wins to at least get one of the final spots in the show. They need 9 wins or more and can't afford to lose to the K-States, Iowa States, Nebraska, and Kansases of the world.

Now a team like Kansas or Nebraska. They need 20 wins heading to Dallas or need an extended stay in Dallas. Reason? Because they haven't beaten anybody in the non-conference schedule. So they need wins.
Kansas played 11 Jabronis, and won them all. But 12-0 start, but a 6-9 final...Means 18 wins, 9 defeats heading to Dallas, meaning they need 2 more wins to get in. Lets say the have to play the first day and lose....18-10...Can you say Katherine Harris? I think you can.
Nebraska knows this situation because it has happened to them the last two years. Very few quality wins and not enough wins period to get it done. 17 wins might get Texas or Texas Tech in the show. 17 or 18 wins gets Nebraska yet another WNIT trip.
Kansas State and Iowa State are in the same boat, so is Texas A&M.

The good news here? Every league is going through the same calculations. Right now, there are very few teams that are out of NCAA contention. Also you have to remember that the committee sees the process on its own terms. Its really comes down to what that group of people in a posh Indianapolis hotel suite deem as important, and it rarely runs parallel to our thoughts.

My belief on the issue? Win as many games as you can and the RPI will take care of itself.

[Scamp]

CSTV.com now has a women's "Road to the Final 64" webpage (thanks for the link, Women's Hoops Blog!). Jerry Palm's Bracketanica is part of it, along with Wednesday columns from Debbie Antonelli and Jessica Garrison.

http://www.cstv.com/sports/w-baskbl/roadtothefinal64/final64.html

[Daddo]

Chipper,

Missouri sloppy? Not a chance. The difference between this extremely successful team and last year's barely adequate team with basically the same players is the elimination of turnovers. They are tough as nails on defense, and will get on the floor after a loose ball, but that hardly equals sloppy. If anything the worst habit they have is a vanilla offense of passing around the perimeter until someone either shoots a 3 or gets bored and fires it in to N'Garsenet.

Sloppy? Sorry, I don't see that at all.

(and I also apologize for dragging up an old thread, I'm obviously distracted by real life a lot lately and not able to give hoopscoop the time I should. Rotten priorities, I know!)

[BeBe]

One thing I do like about Palm's bracket is that he has both Oklahoma and Baylor coming to Denver for the first 2 rounds (in different brackets so they would not meet). At least I'd have some Big 12 teams to cheer for since obviously CU won't be there.

A few years back (when they had to put in for 'hosting') this looked like a potentially good year for CU..... Emily Waner's Junior year and the junior and senior year for a few others who are no longer here. And (I'm sure the hope was) Abby Waner's freshman year.

Well, I still will be there. I do hope I get some Big 12 teams to root for.