Updated Seedings Possibilities

[schooner2]

After tonight's game, the seedings possibilities are starting to narrow just a little bit, but many possibilities still remain with just 2 games left for everyone. Again, OU is #1 seed and KU will be the #12 seed. Still five teams battling for the other 3 first round byes. Four teams still with a shot at the #2 seed. Four teams still with a shot at the #11 seed.

LS = lowest (best) seed possible
HS = highest (worst) seed possible
<pre style="font size: 10pt;">
TEAM LS HS
KSU 2 6
CU 2 6
BU 2 5
ISU 2 8
UT 3 7
TTU 5 9
OSU 6 11
NU 8 11
MU 7 11
TAMU 8 11
</pre>

[This message has been edited by schooner (edited 02-20-2002).]

[schooner2]

By the way, won't this be the first time Texas Tech has had to play on Tuesday since the Big 12 Tourney started?

[DblT81]

Hey! That's right! More opportunities to pad that win column. http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/wink.gif

[schooner2]

Pivotal game on Saturday for Colorado. If they can beat Kansas State they have a very good shot at finishing 2nd or tied for 2nd in conference and will have the #2 seed most likely in the Big 12 Tourney. If CU wins, they will have split with KSU and will have the tiebreaker over KSU because of a better North division record.

[Big12Bear]

Schooner, you are forgetting about BU. Right now we're tied for 2nd. KSU has the tiebreaker over us, and if we all finish tied, we have it over CU. If there's a 3 way tie and CU and KSU have split, I have no idea who gets what seed.

The easiest way noot to worry about this is have KSU lose at CU and have BU win out. Of course, the latter is not very likely.

[schooner2]

Originally posted by Big12Bear:
Schooner, you are forgetting about BU. Right now we're tied for 2nd. KSU has the tiebreaker over us, and if we all finish tied, we have it over CU. If there's a 3 way tie and CU and KSU have split, I have no idea who gets what seed.

The easiest way noot to worry about this is have KSU lose at CU and have BU win out. Of course, the latter is not very likely.


Yes, oops. Big oops. I was making a big (and likely incorrect) assumption there - that being that Baylor loses its last two games against ISU and OSU.

Point remains that if CU loses to KSU on Saturday, they will likely not receive a first round bye in the tourney.

[KSUron]

Call me crazy but I like KSU's chances v CU. We are getting people back to better health where we need them. Kari Hanson played for the first time since her injury in the KU game and did a good job. In addition Chelsea Domenico had what I consider to be her first real solid game since comming back from her injury. I think that with the way Ohlde and Wecker are playing inside, getting two athletic point guards back is a very good sign for the Wildcats. It will give Coach Patterson a much better range of substitution options to use and allow her to really turn up the defensive presure from the guard spots.

[carolann]

Re - Baylor
I think it is entirely possible that Baylor will win out by beating both OSU and ISU on the road. I will be surprised if Baylor loses to OSU.

[BEAR SKIN]

Don't see a lot of difference between the two and the three this year. Just don't want to slip to the four -- hold off the potential third confrontation with OU until March 9. That would be a game to see; worth giving up box seats to Nebraska baseball in Waco that Saturday afternoon.

[swok34]

I, as an OU fan, would much rather play a "north" team than a south team.....I just think it is difficult to beat a team 3 times in one year...I wouldn't mind saving Baylor for Saturday Night. The way I figure for OU is OSU, a chance at Texas...
then, of course, I haven't figured out the next one. Texas wouldn't be a bad match-up given that they split on the season with OU.

[kate dawg]

Ron, this game scares the crap out of me. I like K-State's chances too...I just hope that CU can get it together after a horrendous night turning over the ball in Waco.

[soonerborn]

carolann,

I would be surprised too if Baylor loses to OSU - but, I then I was surprised when they beat ISU and Texas Tech - life is just full of little surprises!

This is what makes the Big XII and this board so much fun http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/biggrin.gif

[Zo31]

Carolann, Ditto!

Thanks for the vote of confidence, because I have butterflies already over the next two games.

Just how would a three way tie for second play out if it was between BU, KSU and CU?

[schooner2]

Originally posted by Zo31:
Carolann, Ditto!

Thanks for the vote of confidence, because I have butterflies already over the next two games.

Just how would a three way tie for second play out if it was between BU, KSU and CU?

As I understand it, you settle the intradivision tie first. So you settle the tie between KSU and CU first. If CU beats KSU, CU will likely hold a tiebreaker over KSU - because first they split head-to-head. So then check how KSU fared against North Division teams and how CU did against the North Division. CU could win this tiebreaker if they beat KSU and then CU won its last regular season game.

Then you take CU versus BU. CU lost to Baylor so Baylor would win the 3-way tie. CU would come out second and then KSU third.

[swok34]

so, that puts the seeds like this?

#2 Baylor
#3 Colorado
#4 Kansas State

I like that........keep Baylor down in the lower part of the bracket.

[This message has been edited by swok34 (edited 02-21-2002).]

[horntooter]

I can't download mred's program; my calculations are done by hand, so correct me if I'm wrong. But it looks to me like Texas' fate depends on the outcome of the KSU/CU game this weekend. If KSU wins, then UT and CU will likely be tied, UT owns the tiebreaker and would end up the 4th seed. That is, of course, if Texas doesn't stumble in their final two games. If CU beats KSU, the UT would likely be the 5th seed. We might be tied with ISU if the Cyclones win against Baylor next week, but again UT has the tiebreaker. If we were the 5th seed, we'd play back-to-back games with KU - the last game of the conference and first game of the tournament. If we were the 4th seed, we'd play either CU or ISU depending on the outcomes of the final two games. Am I on target here?

[swok34]

I've got Kansas State projected as the #4 seed and they would play the winner of the #5 seed vs Kansas.....If Kansas State wins vs CU, and Texas and Iowa State win out....I think that sets up a tie between Texas, Iowa State and Colorado...
and Texas has the head-to-head tie breaker over both....so I think that would leave #4 Texas, #5 Iowa State, #6 Colorado (I think)

Now, if Baylor loses to OSU, they would also be in this pack of ties....with Kansas State secure at the #2 seed....

[mred]

Originally posted by horntooter:
I can't download mred's program

Consider that my project for this summer: I'm going to try to make it java-based so anyone can use it.

Originally posted by swok34:

Now, if Baylor loses to OSU, they would also be in this pack of ties....with Kansas State secure at the #2 seed....

Ahhh... My dream scenario. Baylor, Texas, ISU, and Colorado all tied. ISU beats CU and BU beats UT. ISU beats BU, so ISU is a 3 seed!

[Hazel]

Good job, DblT! Always a positive outlook!

[schooner2]

Originally posted by horntooter:
I can't download mred's program; my calculations are done by hand, so correct me if I'm wrong. But it looks to me like Texas' fate depends on the outcome of the KSU/CU game this weekend. If KSU wins, then UT and CU will likely be tied, UT owns the tiebreaker and would end up the 4th seed. That is, of course, if Texas doesn't stumble in their final two games. If CU beats KSU, the UT would likely be the 5th seed. We might be tied with ISU if the Cyclones win against Baylor next week, but again UT has the tiebreaker. If we were the 5th seed, we'd play back-to-back games with KU - the last game of the conference and first game of the tournament. If we were the 4th seed, we'd play either CU or ISU depending on the outcomes of the final two games. Am I on target here?

First lets take the situation of CU beating KSU. And I have Texas winning its last two games (home agaist A&M, at KU). If Baylor lost its last two games, I have UT, BU, and ISU tieing for 4th with 10-6 records. The tie between UT and BU has to be settled first because they are both from the same divison. BU beat UT twice so autmatically UT is the lowest of those 3 teams and ends up with the 6 seed. But if BU won either of its two remaining games, UT ends up a 5 seed because either ISU will have a worse record than UT or will lose to UT in a tiebreaker.

If KSU beats CU.....And BU loses its last two games, there is a 4-way tie for 3rd in conference with a 10-6 record. UT ends up 5th seed in this scenario cuz they would lose to BU in a tiebreaker and BU would lose to ISU in a head-to-head tiebreaker.

If BU won one of their last two games, UT would jump to a 4 seed because UT has beaten both ISU and CU. UT will lose when going up against BU in a tiebreaker. So, UT should actually be rooting for BU to win 1 or 2 of its final two games. Hope this made sense.

[This message has been edited by schooner (edited 02-22-2002).]

[CyFanRick]

Oh......I'm so confused.....Let's just get the next 2 weeks over with so we know for sure. See ya all in KC.
Go Big 12
Go http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/isu.gif

[horntooter]

Thanks schooner - I had focused on the best possible scenario for UT and hadn't followed all the other permutations to their final conclusion. Actually, I don't think I had even identified all of the possible permutations.