Missouri fades, A&M soars

[YCN]

While Missouri's chances of an NCAA berth disappeared today, the Aggies have now turned a corner in their program's development.

Their 85-61 win over Missouri today was their biggest ever in Big 12 play, and could portend an astonishing finish.

Should the improbable occur, wins in their next 3 games - at Texas Tech and Texas, and home against Oklahoma State, it is quite probable that an NCAA berth would await A&M, if they extend that streak with at least one win in the Big 12 tournament.

Given the Big 12's strength this year, a .500 record in the conference and a winning record would likely propel A&M to the improbable, a guest card at the Dance.

If A&M can win 2 of 3 down the stretch, then 2 wins in the conference tourney would likely give them the magic numbers that they need.

BTW, their win today assured their most successful campaign as a member of the Big 12, and most assuredly make them an NCAA contender.

At one time in the rout of Missouri today the A&M lead was 65-31, and only Missouri getting hot on 3's dropped the final margin to 20 points.

And I'll put in a plug now for Toccara Williams, who is one of the least recognized of the great players in our conference. She goes out and plays solid game after game in the relative obscurity of her program. Her 9 assists with 5 steals against only 1 turnover is merely a reflection of the kind of season this dynamic, but low-scoring guard is having.

I believe she deserves All-Conference honors, but we shall see what happens.


[This message has been edited by YCN (edited 02-17-2002).]

[carolann]

I was among those ready to write Peggy Gillom off earlier this year. I may have been a little hasty. Gillom seems to have a vision and to be bringing that vision to reality. When you are trying to build a program, you usually don't get players who are all things: good athletes, good students, skilled and smart players. Those players are looking at schools recently in the top 5. Bill Fennelly built his program on smart players who could shoot the lights out and worked hard. Gillom has recruited fast, athletic players willing to play 40 minutes of pressure defense like nothing this conference has seen before.

[Daddo]

Missouri's chances are injured, but not dead. 3 very tough games remain...win 2, and make a decent showing in the tournement, and Mizzou SHOULD be in. Their at 68 RPI right now...beat Iowa State and Kansas State and they're close. Fail to do so and they'll have to win the tourney. Evan Unrau SHOULD be back by tourney time but unless they learn to play without her, forget about it. The first half vs. TAMU stunk. We played well enough to keep the game close in some areas, and missed shot after shot after shot. Free throws, 3 pointers, little bunny layups, missed em all. Arrrgghhh.
Thank heavens the next game is vs. ISU instead of OU, a game that may well be a blowout. I think confidence CAN be restored...or, they may mail in the rest of the season. We'll find out Wednesday.

------------------
Fight, Tigers!

[YCN]

Daddo, your wishful thinking for the Tigers flies in the face of what the team has accomplished this year. A 68 RPI (or even a 35) won't get you into the NCAA tournament with a losing conference record, even in the ultra-strong Big 12.

Here are the facts about Missouri that I think the NCAA will look at:
(RPI listed before TEAM, followed by ranking when game was played in parentheses, if applicable.)

<pre style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-VARIANT: normal">
------------------------------------------------------------

Wins


12 Texas Tech (12)
67 SW Mo. St.
71 at Nebraska
71 Nebraska
74 Wisc. Green Bay
112 N. Iowa
175 at Saint Louis
189 at Kansas
189 Kansas
208 S.E. Missouri St.
220 Davidson
276 SE Louisiana
292 Ark. Pine Bluff
300 at UMKC


Losses

8 at South Carolina
9 Kansas State (10)
10 at Iowa State (12)
11 at Texas (12)
15 Baylor (11)
19 Colorado (19)
19 at Colorado (13)
41 Illinois
61 at Oklahoma State
110 at Texas A&M


Record against...

ranked teams: 1-6 (home 1-3, road 0-3)
RPI top 25: 1-7 (home 1-3, road 0-4)
RPI 26-50: 0-1 (road 0-1)
RPI 51-100: 4-1 (home 3-1, road 1-0)
RPI 101+: 9-1 (home 6-0, road 3-1)

--------------------------------------------------</pre>

Of 4 road wins, only 71 Nebraska was in the top 100. The next best road win was at 175 Saint Louis. Of 10 home wins, only 12 Texas Tech was in the top 50. The next best home win was 67 Southwest Missouri State.

Missouri hasn't defeated a team in the top 5 of the Big 12 standings this year. In games played against those 5 teams (OU, KSU, CU, BU, ISU), Missouri has lost by 21 to Baylor, 22 at Texas, 22 to Colorado, 26 at Iowa State, 28 to Kansas State, and 31 at Colorado. Average margin in those losses: 25 points.

Four of five Big 12 wins were against Kansas and Nebraska, the bottom 2 teams in the conference standings.

In order to attain a .500 record in Big 12 play, Missouri must win remaining games against 10 Iowa State and 3 Oklahoma in Columbia, and 12 Kansas State in Manhattan.

That kind of finish might put Missouri into the NCAA tournament, but I believe that they would have to win 2 games in the conference tournament to assure that.

Up until now Missouri has only one single win to hang their hats on, and that win was against Texas Tech. With no road wins of note, a bad loss at Texas A&M, and a SOS rating that might climb into the lower 40's or upper 30's with 3 wins, Missouri's best credentials would be 3 consecutive wins against top 25 teams to end the season, with two of those games at home.

My personal belief is that Missouri needs a 5 game winning streak to get to the Dance. As crazy as the Big 12 has been this year, I just can't imagine that happening. Missouri hasn't stayed within 21 points in any game, home or away, against the top 5 in the Big 12.




[This message has been edited by YCN (edited 02-18-2002).]

[swok34]

and I don't think they are gonna do it without Unrau http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif

[Daddo]

Ha! We'll show you! (pleasepleasepleasepleaseplease)
Saturday's game will be on national TV (we'll see if the men's jinx on TV carries over to the Lady Tigers) will be the final home game of Natalie Bright, and (quake in fear, Sooners) it's TRUMAN THE TIGER BOBBLE HEAD DAY!
Top THAT!
Oh, well, it'll give us another chance to see one of the nation's top teams.
And Coach Stein's still claiming Evan will be around for the tourney...Big XII tourney? WNIT? NCAA? NHL Playoffs? That contraption on her hand doesn't look like anything that'll help her rebound.
I'm awfully close, after that debacle in College Station, to "wait till next year" mode...growing up an Oklahoma State football fan has me well versed in that line. Bright's the only senior and MU should be right in the thick of things next year.


Originally posted by swok34:
and I don't think they are gonna do it without Unrau http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif

[swok34]

daddo.....you are the sign of a true fan, never ever give up until the lights go out and the clock reads 0:00...... http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif

[YCN]

If Missouri wins the national championship, I will feel like the Big 12 made a statement this year, even if nobody else gets to the Sweet 16.

If you are a fan you have a dream in your heart. If it is dashed, then your dream awakens anew next year.

I love Big 12 basketball!

[dem]

Originally posted by YCN:
A 68 RPI (or even a 35) won't get you into the NCAA tournament with a losing conference record, even in the ultra-strong Big 12.


PROBABLY right, but not definitely. Last year these two teams made the tournament:

Texas, 7-9, RPI 26
Arkansas, 6-8, RPI 28

[swok34]

Marsha Sharp voiced some concern today in the coaches teleconference about Texas Tech getting to the tourney and she said they have to win ballgames.....

Texas, last year, was above 20 wins and that's what got them in, along with their RPI & SOS. Marsha said that TTU RPI & SOS will have a strong bearing with the committee but they have to win some games....the game tonite will give them 16 wins.

[Daddo]

I like this! I'm headed out tonight to see the Tigers and ISU, get my daughter a "Truman the Tiger growth chart" and see the continued progress of new starter Amy Loftus, always a fan favorite. She didn't foul out in the first five minutes in Aggieland, so things are coming along nicely. I hate having Evan hurt but getting Amy this experience will pay off down the road.

Originally posted by YCN:
If Missouri wins the national championship, I will feel like the Big 12 made a statement this year, even if nobody else gets to the Sweet 16.

If you are a fan you have a dream in your heart. If it is dashed, then your dream awakens anew next year.

I love Big 12 basketball!

[schooner2]

Originally posted by swok34:
Marsha Sharp voiced some concern today in the coaches teleconference about Texas Tech getting to the tourney and she said they have to win ballgames.....

Texas, last year, was above 20 wins and that's what got them in, along with their RPI & SOS. Marsha said that TTU RPI & SOS will have a strong bearing with the committee but they have to win some games....the game tonite will give them 16 wins.



Hmmm, just sounds like coachspeak to me. TTU has been ranked in the Top 20 all season long. For them not to get into the NCAA Tourney would be a sham of monumental proportions.

[dem]

The way she phrased it was along the lines of "We would feel a lot more comfortable with another couple of wins." I think the idea is that another one or two wins would make it a non-issue, while now some people might want to debate whether or not they should be in. She doesn't want it to be a debatable question. I believe Bill Fennelly has had some similar thoughts, and I'll bet some other coaches do also.