College RPI 1st tourney prediction

[swok34]

Jerry Palm has the first tourney prediction up at his site: http://www.collegerpi.com/women/

6 Big XII teams and their seeds:

3 Baylor...sent to Washington
3 Texas Tech...sent to Dallas
4 Kansas State...sent to Minnesota :eek:
5 Texas...sent to Fresno
6 Iowa State...sent to Maryland
9 Oklahoma...sent to Tennessee

What he doesn't predict is who will win the Big XII.

Wouldn't Texas be sent to Dallas, too :confused:

[wbbcatfan]

I have an idea...how about somebody else go to Minnesota this year? :(

[40ishHorn]

Texas and Texas Tech or "hosting" in Dallas, so I would think both teams would be there? :confused:

[mred]

I have an idea...how about somebody else go to Minnesota this year? :(

We'll gladly trade you Maryland for Minnesota. :)

Also, keep in mind that, with 8 teams per subregional, you only have a 50% chance of having to face the home team to make it to the sweet sixteen (assuming the home team makes it to the NCAA Tournament).

[DblT81]

These projections are nice but there is no way UT and Tech are going anywhere other than Dallas.

The problem is that UT and Tech need a high seed, 4 or higher, so the committe doesn't have to put a higher seeded team against these two on their "home" court. Because UT and Tech attempted to take the high road and bid for hosting at a more neutral venue, placing a higher seed team in Dallas if Tech or UT get a lower than 4 seed, shouldn't be so controversial.

I would love to see a top B12 team face Maryland. I think the Terps have gotten more hype than their play indicates.

[brolewis]

Just a note from the site:

Seeds and locations are not matched yet. The committee matches seeds with locations after it fills out the bracket on Selection Sunday.

He probably just runs the stats through some software and predicts the seeds and then randomly selects a teams location except for the host (which probably only allows one host site, thus Texas being excluded)

[YCN]

I believe that in the new 8-team subregional format, hosting teams are no longer allowed to play on their home court, nor are hosting teams allowed to play on their home court for regional games. However, since Dallas isn't the home court for either team, it's possible that both teams could end up there, but not in the same regional "quad". The NCAA will be locating teams close to home wherever possible.

It isn't a hard and fast rule, but they are trying hard this year not to have any interconference matchups in the NCAA tournament prior to the regional finals. What that means is if a conference had 8 teams selected, they could play at as few as four subregional sites (in separate quads), or as many as all eight.

[DblT81]

Hosting teams can play on their home court. The issue was disscussed to not allow hosts to play at home but that rule was not adopted.

On the CollegeRPI projection, Palm has almost every team shown on their home court.

UNC at UNC, Connecticut at Connecticut, Minnesota at Minnesota, Tennessee at Tennessee, Maryland at Maryland.

OT: I notice that that one host is at Fresno St. Have any of you gentlemen ever seen the coach at Fresno St? I haven't seen many college coaches that look like this:

http://www.fswomenshoops.net/pics/ad_left_gutter_redcoach2.jpg

[Gummy]

While the jist of your assertion is correct -- that the WBB commitee is ultimately working toward completely neutral sites -- teams ARE still allowed to host on their home floor; in fact, they're required to be placed in their own regional if they make the tournament.

The move to eight first-round sites (note that the NCAA is trying to get away from the term "subregional" -- do they feel the games are inferior to regional games? :D ) is part of the process to work toward neutral sites. Fans in Lubbock and Austin already know where they're going to be the third weekend in March...

[DblT81]

Gummy's got it!

[brolewis]

The move to eight first-round sites (note that the NCAA is trying to get away from the term "subregional" -- do they feel the games are inferior to regional games? :D ) is part of the process to work toward neutral sites. Fans in Lubbock and Austin already know where they're going to be the third weekend in March...
I just wish I knew where WE would be the third weekend in March... :rolleyes:

[HoopScoop]

OT: I notice that that one host is at Fresno St. Have any of you gentlemen ever seen the coach at Fresno St? I haven't seen many college coaches that look like this:

http://www.fswomenshoops.net/pics/ad_left_gutter_redcoach2.jpg

Yeah, I've seen her in person because she used to be Oklahoma's assistant coach back in the mid-90s. She was one of the candidates to replace Burl Plunk, but, of course, Sherri was hired.

And yeah, she's easy on the eyes as they say.....

She and Sherri definitely give people across the nation a great look at some ladies that are Sooner born and Sooner bred. Maybe there should be a remake of California girls (pick either Beach Boys or Van Halen) and call it Oklahoma girls. Chipper could probably come up with some lyrics.

[Jennifer]

I've read internet rumors that Fresno State's coach could be OSU's next coach. Hmmmm...that could make things interesting, though I can't imagine her going to that program in its current state with a total lack of support from administration.

[Bball Girl]

Ladies....I don't know about you, but I thought it was quite a treat to get to see Coach Bill today. He's such a cutie...got that boyish look about him with the devlish glint in his eyes and such a great smile. He's really getting grey since I first saw him, but it suits him. I bet he's got great legs...although it's a real shame we never get to see them. :D

http://graphics.fansonly.com/photos/schools/iast/sports/w-baskbl/auto_headshot/39592.jpeg

If OSU is going to coach shop this summer, I think we need another good looking male coach in the league just to balance things out.

[YCN]

Sorry about the misinformation regarding the hosting rules for the tournament, apparently I must have somehow confused the men’s principles for the women’s.

My first thoughts regarding this is one of disgust that the selection committee won’t join the rest of us in the 21st century, but continues to promote the self-interest of a limited subset of schools and the competition disadvantage of the rest. It is patently against fair play and makes a mockery of the tournament to allow any schools to host and play on their home courts at any step of the tournament.

Presumably the move to 8-team subregionals (Sorry, I really don’t care if the NCAA prefers other wording for this…) was for at least three reasons:

One, it was to reduce the need to send teams far from home because of the constraints of having 4-team sites and the lack of flexibility in placing teams based on seed.

Second and more importantly, because of the ability to generally place teams closer to home, the costs borne by the schools in the tournament could be reduced.

Since most women’s programs are not self-sustaining but depend on other sources of revenue, the reduction of travel expense is a real issue here.

Third, the NCAA would like to see more of these games played in larger population centers, and because of the logistic burden of hosting eight schools rather than four, these early rounds would tend to be played in larger population centers, where the chances of higher attendance are greater.

And because of the above three reasons, it makes absolutely no sense to allow a team to play on their home court, unless it ruffles the feathers of certain powerful interests who desire to see the continuation of the status quo.

Let's look at where those subregionals and regionals are to see who might or might not benefit from each site.


First and Second Round Sites

Reunion Arena, Dallas – Certainly co-hosts Texas and Texas Tech certainly would have a crowd advantage, as they would playing almost anywhere in Texas, but there are no neutrality principles violated here. This isn’t the home court of either team, no of any other women’s NCAA as far as I know. Yes, the crowd advantage would be theirs, but at least as big an advantage is staying close to home. I’m unaware of any rule that says that schools have to play halfway across the country away from home.

Save Mart Center, Fresno – Clearly this site would benefit Fresno State, but it looks unlikely that they will come close to making the tournament field, since they are 4-6 in the WAC and in 6th place right now. But it still technically violates the principle of fair play. And you really have to wonder just how many people will attend there without a local presence.

Williams Arena, Minneapolis – Are you kidding me? Not ony are we talking home court for Minnie, we are talking about a large intimidating arena for visiting teams, and a boisterous large crowd in support of the home team. Fair play is just a joke with this venue.

Bank of America Arena, Seattle – At 5-7 and 9-13 nearby Washington is in no position to take advantage of the luxury of playing at home. Once again, this is gross violation of the principles of fair play.

Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill NC – Duh, you think that North Carolina won’t have an advantage here? Not as big as it might seem, because they won’t come close to filling up that 21,000 seat arena, but again this is clearly an advantage for the home team.

Comcast Center, College Park MD – Maryland’s home arena, and although they are only 4-4 in the ACC, at 15-5 overall they have a strong chance to get into the tournament if they finish within two games of .500 in the ACC. Another example of home cooking.

Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville – Does Tennessee host in either the subregionals, regionals or Final Four every year, or does it just seem that way? It’s ridiculous that nearly every year they get at least two games in the tournament on their home court.

Harry A. Gampel Pavillion, Storrs CT – Same applies here as for Tennessee. I seem to remember that just last year UConn didn’t have to cross state lines for the entire run to the championship, and Connecticut is about as big as an average county in Colorado. REAL fair. We need all the big dominators of women’s basketball to have special concessions to prevent them from actually having to play games under fair circumstances, don’t we?


Regional Sites

McKenzie Arena, Chattanooga – Let’s not kid ourselves here, this isn’t intended to benefit the Lady Rattlers, but the Lady Vols. This is just more grease on the rail to the Final Four for Pat Summit’s team, and I’m sick of it.

Wells Fargo Arena, Tempe – At 7-4 and 15-6, Arizona State is likely to welcome three lucky teams to their quad in that subregional. Again (and again and again) a violation of the principles of fair competition.

The Liacouras Center, Philadelphia – This “just in time” regional is a sure-fire solution to the difficult road to the Final Four. Temple is a very good basketball team this year at 9-0 and 17-3, and they WILL be in the NCAA tournament, and at a high-enough seed that they will almost certainly being playing in their own regional. Boy are they “lucky”.

Municipal Auditiorium, Kansas City – at 6-14 in the Mid-Con, the Kangaroos of UMKC aren’t going anywhere this year, but once again, this is the primary court of a host team.

-----

There you have it. Seven of eight subregionals are being played on the host school’s home court, and all four regionals. The only true neutral court is Reunion Arena in Dallas. That’s not even moving toward competitive fairness, but away from it.

Here’s how it could have gone: Fresno could have hosted at an un-affiliated arena in San Francisco. How about Minnesota hosting at Target Center? Maybe not possible, but I bet a suitable arena could have been found near or in the Twin Cities.

The same goes for all of the college teams that have pro teams nearby and/or are located near large metro areas. Let them host to keep their fans happy, but make them play away from their home courts. You can never have complete equity in playing conditions, but it’s just not the same thing if you are playing at the home arena of another team as the host. The surroundings are unfamiliar both on and off the court, and most of the home team advantage is eliminated.

That’s the best you are ever going to do.

[wwi_flying_ace_17]

I honestly don't think there has ever been a year where Tennessee hasn't played at least one round on their homecourt.

I wish they would institute a rule where they had to be moved off-campus. Even if they wanted to keep a bunch of games in Tennessee, are you telling me there are no facilities that aren't related to a campus that can be used?

[YCN]

My thoughts about Jerry Palm seeding OU to play in Tennessee's quad in Knoxville...

NOT A CHANCE!

OU is too dangerous a team, even as a 9-seed. The committee would never subject the Lady Vols to that kind of duress in the second round on their home court. OU will end up somewhere far away from home, probably either Washington or Fresno, where we will probably have Stanford as a roadblock to the Sweet Sixteen.

The committee formulates the bracket starting with two compelling questions:

1. Is OU in the tournament?
2. Which site does Stanford play at?

After determining those two things, the rest of the bracket is determined.

:rolleyes:

[dem]

How about Minnesota hosting at Target Center? Maybe not possible, but I bet a suitable arena could have been found near or in the Twin Cities.



You think that wouldn't be a home-court advantage, are you kidding? They can pack in even more fans at the Target Center than in Williams. Sure it's not your home baskets, but if I'm Minnesota I'll take that trade any day. The Target Center is right in the middle of downtown and would be packed to the rafters.

[carolann]

Save Mart Center, Fresno – Clearly this site would benefit Fresno State, but it looks unlikely that they will come close to making the tournament field, since they are 4-6 in the WAC and in 6th place right now. But it still technically violates the principle of fair play. And you really have to wonder just how many people will attend there without a local presence.

This site is well located to get fans from any of the California schools, particularly Stanford.

[YCN]

Look, there's no rule that says you can't host, so just getting teams off their home courts is the next step. I don't care if some other court in the area seems like home cooking, according to the principles of fair play any court other than your own is considered to be neutral.

It would be nice if we could just start there, before we add politics into the "local court" process. If you deny local courts, we'd never get a bracket done. Local teams are almost always going to have much bigger crowds in the NCAA tournament. Welcome to the real world.