Conference projection after Session 6

[YCN]

Here's the latest projection from my spreadsheet, and it differs pretty dramatically from the last one. I've included more columns this time, breaking down overall victories by conference and non-conference, and including the record against Division I teams, which is what the selection committee will use during their NCAA selection meeting.

I also projected the Big 12 tourney with the winner in all cases being the team with the higher current RPI rather than tourney seed, and then a final listing of how many wins the teams would have over all D-I teams post-tournament.

As has been said before, this is a trivial pursuit, because games are played by players and not numbers. It should also be noted that I use a .035 RPI bonus for home teams, and the team with the higher RPI after adjustment is projected to be the winner. CollegeRPI.com (http://www.collegerpi.com/women/) uses a similar method with a .045 bonus instead, but I decided that it seemed too large and chose the smaller number instead.

Also included is where CollegeRPI.com (http://www.collegerpi.com/women/) projects these teams to finish the regular season prior to the conference tournament, and Jerry Palm's projection of their final RPI numbers. It should be noted that he only includes a projection of results of the teams in his RPI projection, and not their opponents or the opponents' opponents. That would be a considerably more complicated task.

Here's the latest projection. It shows Baylor, Oklahoma an Texas Tech tied for second behind Kansas State. Texas Tech is projected to lose the tiebreaker and get a 4 seed in the tourney, and Baylor gets the 2 seed on a COIN FLIP!

Current Conf Non-C All Div I Tourney Final
Team RPI Rnk W L W L W L W L W L W L
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Kansas St.... .6425 18 13 3 9 2 22 5 22 5 1 1 23 6
Baylor....... .6459 16 12 4 10 1 22 5 22 5 3 0 25 5
Oklahoma..... .6257 26 12 4 8 3 20 7 19 7 1 1 20 8
Texas Tech... .6537 13 12 4 9 2 21 6 21 6 2 1 23 7
Iowa State... .6213 31 11 5 10 1 21 6 21 6 1 1 22 7
Texas........ .6337 22 11 5 7 4 18 9 18 9 1 1 19 10
Nebraska..... .5969 50 11 5 8 4 19 9 19 9 1 1 20 10
Texas A&M.... .5587 79 4 12 11 1 14 13 14 13 1 1 15 14
Colorado..... .5384 96 3 13 7 4 10 17 10 17 0 1 10 18
Kansas....... .5572 81 3 13 7 4 10 17 10 16 0 1 10 17
Missouri..... .5266 113 3 13 6 5 9 18 9 18 0 1 9 19
Oklahoma St.. .4729 190 1 15 5 5 6 20 5 19 0 1 5 20
--------------------------------------------------------------------


And here is a summary of CollegeRPI.com's projection.

Current Conf Non-C All Div I
Team RPI Rnk W L W L W L W L
-----------------------------------------------------
Kansas St.... .6256 23 13 3 9 2 22 5 22 5
Baylor....... .6330 17 12 4 10 1 22 5 22 5
Oklahoma..... .6284 22 12 4 8 3 20 7 19 7
Texas Tech... .6311 19 12 4 9 2 21 6 21 6
Iowa State... .5936 44 11 5 10 1 21 6 21 6
Texas........ .6236 24 11 5 7 4 18 9 18 9
Nebraska..... .5672 65 9 7 8 4 17 11 17 11
Texas A&M.... .5554 79 6 11 11 1 16 12 16 12
Kansas....... .5305 106 4 12 7 4 11 16 11 15
Colorado..... .5219 121 3 13 7 4 10 17 10 17
Missouri..... .5178 127 3 13 6 5 9 18 9 18
Oklahoma St.. .4767 192 1 15 5 5 6 20 5 19
-----------------------------------------------------

[nativetechsan]

I've got KState losing at Baylor and Oklahoma, also at home against Texas...with the loss they have against ISU that makes them 12-4. Their game in Lincoln could be trouble as well.

[YCN]

Here's how my prediction generator predicts all of the unplayed games. It's working pretty well, because other than 4 upsets, it's gotten every game right. That's the same number of correct picks as the top people have in the Pick'em game, and I wouldn't be surprised if at least a couple of those took advantage of the bonus pick on the UT-CT game to take away a fifth wrong pick...

Baylor
Home wins over ISU, K-State, Missouri, OSU, A&M and Tech.
Road wins over CU, KU and OSU. Road losses at OU and Tech.

Colorado
Wins at home against KU and Missouri, losses against K-State and Nebraska, Baylor and OU.
Road losses against ISU, KU, K-State, UT and A&M.

Iowa State
No home losses, just all wins against CU, KU, OSU, UT and A&M.
A road win against Missouri, and losses against K-State, Nebraska, Baylor, OU and Tech.

Kansas
One home win over CU. Home losses against Nebraska, Baylor, OU and Texas Tech.
One road win at OSU. Road losses at CU, ISU, K-State, Missouri and Nebraska.

Kansas State
All home wins, over CU, ISU, KU, OSU and Texas.
Road wins over CU, Missouri and Nebraska. Road losses at Baylor and OU.

Missouri
Home wins over KU and A&M. Home losses to ISU, K-State and Texas.
No road wins. Losses at CU, Nebraska, Baylor, OU and Tech.

Nebraska
Home wins over ISU, KU, Missouri and OU. A home loss to KSU.
Road wins at CU, KU, OSU and A&M. Road loss at Texas.

Oklahoma
All home wins, over ISU, K-State, Missouri, Baylor, UT and Tech.
Road wins at CU, KU and OSU. Road losses at Nebraska and Texas.

Oklahoma State
Home losses to KU, Nebraska, Baylor, OU and Texas.
Road losses to ISU, K-State, Baylor, A&M and Tech.

Texas
All home wins, over CU, Nebraska, OU, A&M and Tech.
Road wins over Missouri, OSU and A&M. Road losses at ISU, K-State and OU.

Texas A&M
Home wins over CU and OSU. Home losses to Nebraska, Texas and Tech.
No road wins. Losses at ISU, Missouri, Baylor, UT and Tech.

Texas Tech
Home wins over ISU, Missouri, Baylor, OSU and A&M.
Road wins over KU and A&M. Road losses at Baylor, OU and Texas.


(Edited to add OU's predicted road results, which I had left out.)

(Edited to add Baylor's predicted results, which were overlooked...)

[nativetechsan]

I'll put my predictor against your predictor, and raise you a wild a** guess.

[brolewis]

How come you don't have Baylor's future predictions listed?

[YCN]

How come you don't have Baylor's future predictions listed?

Forgot all about them, didn't I? I'll add them now.

[Cowgirlfan]

OK, OSU is terrible, but do we really think they will lose in GIA to Kansas? I think that's their only other win this season, but I'm pretty confident they get that one (and they'd lose in Allen Fieldhouse).

[YCN]

These aren't my thoughts about who is going to win. It's strictly based on current RPI, and the home team gets (in my formula) a .035 home advantage added to the RPI rating.

The projection was based on Sunday's RPI ratings, but here is the same formula at work today.

Kansas .5544
OSU .4736 (.4736 + .035) = .5086

As you can see, the .5086 still falls well short of KU's .5544. But the games are played by the players not numbers, so maybe the Cowgirls can get that win. It should be noted that beating Colorado, with an RPI of 97 today, was by far the best win the Cowgirls have had this year. None of their other five wins were over a team currently higher than 242 (Wichita State) in the RPI, which isn't very good at all.

[ChipperF1]

If that prediction holds true, my lasses are headed for the WNIT again :(

Feed this into your algorhythms.

Nebraska has managed to beat KSU in Lincoln 2 of the last 3 years with less capable teams than what the Huskers have now.

If your predictions hold true, then this week of poor play really hurt.

[YCN]

I think it's fairly easy to see which are the key games for Nebraska in their remaining 10 conference games. I'll highlight the ones that I think are most critical.

Home wins over ISU, KU, Missouri and OU. A home loss to KSU.
Road wins at CU, KU, OSU and A&M. Road loss at Texas.
Nebraska should win both games with KU, and road games at OSU and A&M. If you can't do that, then your chances get a lot slimmer for getting to the Dance. And there's no real reason to believe that you would win in Austin, although stranger things have happened.

The diciest home wins are the ones against ISU and OU, but I think that a 3-2 home record in remaining home games wouldn't be a disaster.

And it's critical that Nebraska win that trip to Boulder. CU just isn't that good, and a loss there could be a one-way ticket to the WNIT.

Nebraska projects out to a 20-10 season or 19-11 with a first round loss in the Big 12 tourney, which I would view as unlikely if Nebraska finishes in the top 7 of the Big 12. Combine that with an 11-5 conference record in the Big 12, and I can't see Nebraska not getting in no matter what the RPI number says. And with so much to play for, I can't imagine that your team won't be properly motivated for the stretch run.

Even if the projection I have is wrong and Nebraska finished at 9-7 in the conference with two more losses, if those losses were against say, ISU and OU, I still think that at 18-12 or 17-13 it would be very difficult for the selection committee to deny a berth, considering that six Big 12 teams are currently in the RPI top 26, and there stands to be a big gap between the top 7 in the conference and the bottom 5. Just being in that group of teams with winning conference records should be enough IMO.

[dem]

I still think that at 18-12 or 17-13 it would be very difficult for the selection committee to deny a berth, considering that six Big 12 teams are currently in the RPI top 26, and there stands to be a big gap between the top 7 in the conference and the bottom 5. Just being in that group of teams with winning conference records should be enough IMO.

This is plausible and very possibly correct, but I think this year's non-conference performance of the Big 12 puts a bigger question mark on it than would normally be the case. The Big 12 has lost a lot more games to non-conference opponents than it did in recent years, and those losses will be scrutinized carefully during the selection process. I worry that they could serve as a justification for squeezing out that seventh team (whichever one it is).

In the past, bubble teams with RPI ranks above 50 often did not get into the Tournament. According to Jerry Palm's projected RPI, ISU ends up at 46 and Nebraska at 62. (The other five of the "top seven" are all projected at 24 or better.) Those projections are extremely uncertain, but they are probably a better guide than the current RPI rankings.

So, if I wanted to worry about this (and that is what fans do, after all), I'd be concerned that ISU and Nebraska either have to prove those projections incorrect, or need to have a squeaky-clean won-lost record (no bad losses!) in the final ten games.

[YCN]

The Big 12 will end up playing 11 fewer non-conference games this year, partly due to a slight tightening up on the allowing for extra games in tournaments, and partly due to Tech winning the Preseason WNIT last year.

The conference overall has averaged 2.83 non-conference losses compared to 2.33 last year, a total of 6 more losing non-conference games. But the conference has played a tougher non-conference schedule this year, albeit not by much. But the selection committee looks harder at the top 100 games your conference played out of conference rather than the gimmes, and I'd be willing to bet that the conference teams have played more games against top 100 teams this year than last.

And I remember that last year the top 7 in the conference in total saw their RPI's slowly climb right on through the conference tournament, and I see no reason why that won't happen again this year. Right now the Big 12 has a conference RPI of .5881 compared to a finishing RPI of .5890 last year, a miniscule difference. And if A&M can beat TAMU-Corpus Christi at home in the last Big 12 non-conference game, that will probably climb above last year.

The conference has developed enough of a reputation that getting a 7th team in should not be all that difficult, but we shall see.

[ChipperF1]

"The conference has developed enough of a reputation that getting a 7th team in should not be all that difficult, but we shall see.

Conference do not qualify for the NCAA tournament. Teams qualify for the NCAA tournament.

I don't see a 7th team getting for the Big 12 unless it has that 19th or 20th win, plus some gaudies against the top 25-30 in the RPI.

"I still think that at 18-12 or 17-13 it would be very difficult for the selection committee to deny a berth, considering that six Big 12 teams are currently in the RPI top 26, and there stands to be a big gap between the top 7 in the conference and the bottom 5.

Actually, an 18-12 record would make it very easy for the committee to deny a berth and 17-13 means you'd best start selling WNIT tickets.

Lets consider Nebraska for example...

18-12, assuming all questionables are lost meant the following. A 5-5 last ten in the Big 12 slate. Lets say Nebraska goes 1-1 in the Big 12 tourney...Now you are at 19-13.

Assuming the losses were the following. KSU, OU, ISU, at Texas, at Colorado.

Then assuming Big 12 tournament win vs. Kansas or TAMU loss to ISU, TTU or KSU.

The result....19-13 maybe an RPI in the 50s or low 40s...

However....RPI Top 100 on the road....1-7

I keep going back to this stat, because its that "smoking gun".
I'm not thinking about sneaking in at this point. It's pretty simple, Win 20.

That means run this table all the way to Kansas City, including that duel in the drum with Texas. To me that game is the most important, because that game will accurately mimic the March experience. On the road, tough opponent, kill-or-be-killed.

Its what I always say. Win as many games as you can, and the RPI takes care of itself.

[bosley]

Okay. I must have some funky setting on my browser, but I don't see the projections. I just get a box with the word "code" over it. Am I doing something wrong?

[Jimi]

Bosley, I think you are right, at least up to a point. I get the same result on my G3 Mac at home when I use Internet Explorer 6. When I use Mozzila on the same machine it comes up fine. Way smarter folks than me can tell us why. A guess might be a pop-up blocker but that's just a dumb guess.

Btw, the same machine works great when I access the chat room with IE6 but it locks up solid when I use Mozilla. Go Figure?

[walkaway]

Jimi,
osmosis from a lot of way smarter folks (husband, son, coworkers) ... it's definitely a security/firewall/popup issue.

Sometimes my IE locks up with the Google toolbar showing, but if I turn that toolbar off and restart, it's all good. I use Mozilla *lots* at home 'cause it automatically handles the stuff the google toolbar takes care of, and doesn't lock up.

Now, what's a killer: www.texastech.com's women's b-ball page, in Mozilla, is unreadable because the text and color blocks don't come up correctly as the page layout should. In IE-last-week's update, it's fine. *That* is a web page design issue. ... and that's what I use to tell the difference.

at www.texastech.com and some other places I read, the chats and Mozilla = no likey, but I don't know why.

[Jimi]

You are so on about the web page design aspect. Thats why my guys here have always run our page on various browsers and both a Mac (G5) and the ubiquitous PC's. Even then we wind up with problems and we are not trying to do anything fancy.