College RPI says 7, almost 8

[Daddo]

Collegerpi.com is a website with bracket predictions that are pretty darn accurate most times. At this point, they have 7 conference teams in, with Mizzou one of the four "bubble" teams left out. They were in before the recent loss, and could still make the tourney (I THINK) if they finish 3-2, beating TAMU, ISU (at home) and (this is the leap of faith) at Kansas State and losing at Colorado and at home to OU. Tough road to hoe, but I have faith in my girls!
Oklahoma projects as a 1 seed, playing Belmont then either Penn State or UNLV. Iowa State, a 5 seed, is in the same bracket playing Rice, then Miss. State or UNC Greensboro. Possible Big XII matchup in the Sweet 16 there, which would be cool.
CU is listed at 4 in the East, playing Siena, then FLA International or George Washington.
Tech's a 4 in the west, playing Tenn. Tech, then Florida or Drake. On the other side of the West bracket is K-State, a 3 seed starting with Holy Cross, then Colorado State or Western KY.
Texas is 3 in the Mideast, playing Valpo, then B.C. or Marquette. Baylor is 5 in the Mideast, starting with Creighton, then Wisconsin or UW-Green Bay (whom Mizzou beat)
1 seeds are Purdue, Tennessee, Oklahoma and that other bunch I can't bring myself to mention.
This is all for fun, of course, but it's time to start thinking about the tourney. Hate to see Mizzou go from Sweet 16 to NIT...too bad they wouldn't let us keep Lassiter around for one more season!

[mred]

The collegerpi.com bracket projections are always interesting to look at. I would like to point out a flaw in this one: ISU will not be in the same subregional as Miss. St., as this would be a rematch of the Coaches vs. Cancer final (won by ISU).

Question: If ISU hosts (which is looking a little more likely than it did earlier), will they put two Big XII hosting schools in the Ames regional? For example, if ISU were a 4 seed and OU were a 1 seed, they would both be favored to win their subregional. They would then play each other in Ames. Will the committee avoid having a Big XII rematch of any sort on a non-neutral court? The Midwest Region is the closest thing to a home region for the Big XII schools, so you would expect two host teams from the Big XII (if the Big XII has 5 host teams) in that region.

[swok34]

ISU will not be in the same subregional as Miss. St., as this would be a rematch of the Coaches vs. Cancer final (won by ISU)

not sure this matters.....OU hosted Stanford last year, after playing them in the regular season.

and I really don't think 2 conference teams should meet BEFORE the Final four......but is that possible? Especially when OU and Iowa State could end up being #1, #2 in the Big XII. I did hear Sherri say that OU would "not" go West.

I redid my Big XII predictions and have a 4-way tie for second place between Kansas State, Colorado, Baylor and Iowa State....
and I'm really not sure how to figure these tiebreak rules with this many teams http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif

[mred]

breaking the tie:

I'm assuming then that you have all five teams with 5 losses, which means ISU wins out, Baylor beats everyone except ISU, Colorado beats everyone except Baylor, and KSU loses to OU and CU.

Set Baylor aside and compare only the North division teams.

First step is comparing records in a round-robin style. Each team went 2-2 against the other two combined.

Second step is comparing divisional record. ISU lost 2 in the North (KSU and CU). KSU lost three (ISU, CU, NU). CU lost 2 (KSU, ISU). Therefore, KSU is third out of these three.

ISU and CU are tied head-to-head and in the division. Therefore, we go to the next step: comparing their records against North teams one by one down the order. They both went 1-1 against KSU. They both went 2-0 against MU, NU, and KU.

Fourth step: compare records against South teams in order from top to bottom. ISU went 1-0 against OU and CU went 0-1. Therefore ISU wins the tiebreak against CU.

Okey. Now we have ISU, CU, and KSU in order. Where does Baylor fit in? We compare them against the three one-by-one. ISU beat BU, so ISU is above them. BU beat CU, so we put BU ahead of CU.

Final standings: OU, ISU, BU, CU, KSU. I'm about 90% certain I did this right.

[Jennifer]

Originally posted by mred:
Okey. Now we have ISU, CU, and KSU in order. Where does Baylor fit in? We compare them against the three one-by-one. ISU beat BU, so ISU is above them. BU beat CU, so we put BU ahead of CU.

Final standings: OU, ISU, BU, CU, KSU. I'm about 90% certain I did this right.

Does the head-to-head between KSU and BU not come into play here?

[swok34]

If this plays out, this would be almost the exact tourney seeding as last year, anything to keep Baylor down in that lower bracket, assuming the wheels don't fall off the buggy and OU slips down there also.

Game 5: (1) Oklahoma (9) Kansas
Game 6: (4) Colorado (5) Missouri
Game 7: (2) Texas Tech (7) Texas
Game 8: (3) Iowa State (6) Baylor

[DingoBoy24]

Originally posted by swok34:
ISU will not be in the same subregional as Miss. St., as this would be a rematch of the Coaches vs. Cancer final (won by ISU)

not sure this matters.....OU hosted Stanford last year, after playing them in the regular season.

and I really don't think 2 conference teams should meet BEFORE the Final four......but is that possible? Especially when OU and Iowa State could end up being #1, #2 in the Big XII. I did hear Sherri say that OU would "not" go West.

I redid my Big XII predictions and have a 4-way tie for second place between Kansas State, Colorado, Baylor and Iowa State....
and I'm really not sure how to figure these tiebreak rules with this many teams http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif

If the B12 sends more than 4 teams then some of them will have to meet before F4. With 4 regions, and 8 sub regions, meeting before F4 can only be avoided if the Conference sends ONLY 4 teams, but more than 4 that means 2 of them might collide in the elite 8.

[mred]

Originally posted by Jennifer:
Does the head-to-head between KSU and BU not come into play here?



Correct, although if CU had beaten BU then KSU-BU head-to-head would determine the last two spots. If I understand this correctly (and I recall last season checking old results and seedings to make sure I was right) this is the way you do it. If there is a three way tie, two from one division and one from the other, you break the tie between divisional opponents first. Then you compare the third team to the tiebreak winner (we'll call them team #1). If #3 beat #1, then the order is 3,1,2 (3 vs 2 head-to-head is not a factor). If 1 beat 3, then 1 is first and we compare 2 and 3 head-to-head to determine the last two places.

I assume the same applies to a four-way tie with 3 and 1 (as this was).

Another example: Let's say ISU, CU, BU, and TT are tied. We compare ISU and CU (let's say ISU wins) and we compare TT and BU (let's say TT wins). We then compare TT and ISU. TT beat ISU, so TT is #1. We then compare BU and ISU. Let's say ISU wins. We then compare CU and BU. BU beat CU so the order is TT, ISU, BU, CU.

[swok34]

If the B12 sends more than 4 teams then some of them will have to meet before F4

I realize this......what I don't see is the 2 strongest teams from the Big 12 being in the same regional.....there's plenty of room to spread 'em out.....the four strongest of a conference should each be placed in a seperate regions and the next 3 or 4 then placed in those same regions......

I really, really don't like the bracket projection this week from collegerpi.com....they have OU as #1 seed and Stanford as #2 seed in the west........yuk!!!! Though I agree with his projections that Purdue (should they win the Big 10) should get a #1 seed, also......before Stanford. The Big 10 runs pretty close to the Big 12, if I'm not mistaken.

[swok34]

although if CU had beaten BU

they still might http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gifand they could secure the #2 spot, of course that still means OU has to beat KSU and CU has to take care of KSU.....though if they do, they kick Baylor down to a solid #5.....I also have Texas and Texas Tech duking it out for the 6th and 7th spot....argghhhhhhhh, such an unpredictable conference.

Looking at the last 4/5 matchups; there's a "good one" everytime a Big XII team hits the court.



[This message has been edited by swok34 (edited 02-11-2002).]

[mred]

Originally posted by swok34:
I realize this......what I don't see is the 2 strongest teams from the Big 12 being in the same regional.....there's plenty of room to spread 'em out.....the four strongest of a conference should each be placed in a seperate regions and the next 3 or 4 then placed in those same regions......

It could work out pretty well. Let's say OU, ISU, KSU, CU, and a Texas school host. ISU gets MW. KSU could get ME (Milwaukee; not too horribly far away), CU gets put out west, and the TX school is in the east. If two Texas schools host and ISU doesn't, then one will go to the MW. As for the 1 seeds...

CT was E last season and TN was ME. That means TN is almost assured of the #1 seed in the east. If Stanford and OU are 1 seeds, Stanford is west. That means CT and OU are in the ME and MW. If ISU ended up as the #2 or #3 team in the conference, they'd probably put OU in the ME (with KSU) and CT in the MW. (Switch the two if KSU is higher than ISU.) If PU and OU are 1 seeds, then OU will go out west with CU (likely with Stanford #2).

[mred]

Originally posted by swok34:

Looking at the last 4/5 matchups; there's a "good one" everytime a Big XII team hits the court.


I love how every gameday you can check out 4 or 5 of the Big XII's 6 games by just looking at the Top 25 scores.

[mred]

I've looked at a lot of different scenarios. I can't tell you how many times I've seen one where a team getting either the 3 seed or the 7 seed hinges on a single game.

[swok34]

I can't tell you how many times I've seen one where a team getting either the 3 seed or the 7 seed hinges on a single game

no kidding, and you have to wonder about the teams like Oklahoma State, Texas A & M, Nebraska........they may not go down without a GOOD fight! ok, Kansas probably will and Missouri has a really rough road ahead to finish.....

[dem]

As interesting as it is to contemplate Jerry Palm's bracket projections at collegerpi.com, you really REALLY have to take them with a grain of salt. They are quite volatile from one projection to the next, and the uncertainty in any given projection is pretty large. For example, he has moved Iowa State from a #6 seed to a #5 seed to a #3 seed over the past couple of projections, and the projected opponents have also shifted wildly. [Note that the most recent update was at 1:35 PM Monday Feb. 11]

This year especially, because so many teams are bunched very closely together (particularly in the Big 12), the actual bracket will INEVITABLY hinge on the outcome of the final few games, including the tournaments. I'm personally trying not to get too excited or depressed with each turn of the screw, and just keep on hoping that my team will keep winning. If it does, the other stuff will take care of itself. If it doesn't -- well, here's how Coach Fennelly put it a couple of weeks ago:

"We're just trying to get into the NCAA tournament. And then . . . we'll take our chances there."

[Daddo]

I'm sorry, y'all, but it's just too close to leave to chance. Much as it may disappoint you, Mizzou will have no choice but to go win the Big XII tourney. Better luck next year!

Originally posted by dem:
As interesting as it is to contemplate Jerry Palm's bracket projections at collegerpi.com, you really REALLY have to take them with a grain of salt. They are quite volatile from one projection to the next, and the uncertainty in any given projection is pretty large. For example, he has moved Iowa State from a #6 seed to a #5 seed to a #3 seed over the past couple of projections, and the projected opponents have also shifted wildly. [Note that the most recent update was at 1:35 PM Monday Feb. 11]

This year especially, because so many teams are bunched very closely together (particularly in the Big 12), the actual bracket will INEVITABLY hinge on the outcome of the final few games, including the tournaments. I'm personally trying not to get too excited or depressed with each turn of the screw, and just keep on hoping that my team will keep winning. If it does, the other stuff will take care of itself. If it doesn't -- well, here's how Coach Fennelly put it a couple of weeks ago:

"We're just trying to get into the NCAA tournament. And then . . . we'll take our chances there."



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Fight, Tigers!