Conf Race Half-Way Mark

[carolann]

I decined to make predictions before the conference started.
With a little more than half the games played, here are my predictions for the first 8 teams.

1 Oklahoma
2 Kansas St
3 Baylor
4/5 Colorado/Texas tie (Texas has tie break)
6/7 Iowa St/Texas Tech tie (Texas Tech owns tie break)
8 Oklahoma St

[BenEClone]

How do you see the month of February? At this point, the RPI takes on some significance as well as who is playing well. Applying those principles, I agree that KSU and OU will be 1 and 2 in one order or another. I think Baylor loses 3 more (6) - plays at OU and ISU and has TT at home. Texas loses 1 more (4) - OU at home. (Tennessee doesn't count and I give them an iffy win at TT.) Colorado loses 4 more (7) - at TT, ISU and BU and at home against KSU. Tech loses 2 more (6) - Tx at home and at OU. ISU (I think they'll beat KSU, win out, and get Tuesday off, but, to be consistent with the principles. . .) loses 1 more (6) - at KSU.
The Texas vs TT game is the bigget toss up but it won't affect anyone else in standings. Thus, my top teams and number of loses:
OU 1
KSU 2
Texas 4
Tech 6 (TT wins tie breaker over ISU and BU)
ISU 6 (ISU wins tie breaker over BU)
BU 6
CU

I haven't figured the others yet.

[RaiderPower1]

Texas Tech beats UT! http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif

[This message has been edited by RaiderPower1 (edited 01-31-2002).]

[Zo31]

Raiderpower, are you an Aggie fan?

[RaiderPower1]

huh?

[RaiderPower1]

Ohhhhhhhh....sorry...simple typo...there fixed it. http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif

[Zo31]

BenEClone, my feelings are hurt! Baylor should finish higher than 6th, especially if their defense keeps getting tougher. They beat Texas in Austin and have them again at home. I could not rank Texas 3rd and Baylor 6th if Baylor beats them twice. Tech and ISU are going to be tough games, but BU is capable and has a good shot at winning one of those games. I can't wait to go to the Big VII tourney. This will be my first time. http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/biggrin.gif

PS: I'm looking for a first round bye!

Go http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/bu.gif

[This message has been edited by Zo31 (edited 01-31-2002).]

[RaiderPower1]

Oh...and Zo...don't ever call me an aggie fan. I took it to heart when those words came before my eyes and I almost bashed the monitor in. I'll never like the aggies or longhorns! Ever! http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif I still don't know what I was thinking when I thought about going to UT for college http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/wink.gif . Luckily, I got my head screwed on straight and decided to go to UT at Dallas. http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif

[Zo31]

RaiderPower, I have made that mistake several times. My daughter goes to A&M and I hear "tu" spoken instead of UT all the time and it just a bad habit.

I was never an Aggie fan until she went down there. They are not bad by any means, just misunderstood.

[This message has been edited by Zo31 (edited 01-31-2002).]

[mred]

Originally posted by Zo31:
I can't wait to go to the Big VII tourney.

Are we dropping Missouri, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Kansas?

We'd be the first conference in history to have all of its teams ranked at the same time! http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif

I had to have a little fun with that typo.

[This message has been edited by mred (edited 01-31-2002).]

[RaiderPower1]

hahaha...no..i actually like OSU's program right now...They kind of remind me of UT 2000-2001...always losing the close ones. ????? http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/confused.gif

[Zo31]

Heavens no!

[mred]

Missouri, OSU, and Texas A&M are all capable of beating anyone in the conference at any given time. I find myself never expecting Nebraska to beat any of the top 7, even though they should be capable of winning a few of those games. Kansas is looking forward to next season, because it can't be as bad as this one.

[BenEClone]

Zo31 - no offense intended. I agree that my list leaves Baylor undeservedly low. Texas has lost 3 of the last 4, one of which was at home to Baylor. With that in mind, Baylor should win at home. My picks were based entirely on RPI. Right now, Texas is 8 and Baylor is 25. That can be misleading on account of early season SOS. However it comes out, there are going to be some good teams playing on Tuesday. Injuries, conditioning and quality depth take on increased significance on Wednesday and Thursday. The auditorium sells beer. Oh yes, its hard on the teams, also. http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/biggrin.gif

[carolann]

I only went 8 deep because I'm lazy by nature.

BEN, I like your predictions better. I didn’t pay to much attention to RPI. My predictions are based more on current conference results and my own subjective opinions. Since I’d rather be happily surprised than let down, I’ve taken the most pessimistic view of the Longhorns. I’ve assumed: (1) wins over @A&M, OSU, A&M, and @ Kansas; (2) losses to @Texas Tech, @ Baylor, and Oklahoma. The Longhorns are capable of winning 1 or 2 of these games but I don’t know if they will. I may have been generous to Baylor. I’ve only given them losses @ OU and @ ISU. I’ve given ISU 2 more losses, @KSU and (don’t laugh) @OSU. Anyway, I figure ISU will let down somewhere. I’ve got Colorado winning at Tech and losing @ISU, @Baylor, and to KSU at home. Oklahoma State has definitely shown that they can cause trouble. Imo, good teams should not lose to Missouri unless they are not paying attention. Missouri plays well and plays hard but has significant personnel shortages. Their post players are good, but just to small. A&M is dangerous to teams that don't take care of the ball,let themselves get flustered, or are just having a very bad day.

[Bobcat4956]

My picks are (1) Oklahoma, (2) Kansas State, (3) Baylor, (4) Texas - I HOPE!!!! After that, I just don't know. I agree with Carolann about Texas though. We are capable of beating TT, Baylor or Oklahoma, but will we. If Texas cannot get more consistent guard play, we won't. This conference is SO TOUGH that it is almost impossible to predict. I would HOPE it will help our teams in the NCAA tourney.

[kate dawg]

I don't want to get carried away, but there is just NO WAY colorado finishes seventh.

And of the four games people keep mentioning (at Tech, at ISU, at Baylor and vs. K-State at home) of those four, everyone is picking CU to lose to KSU. No WAY. Not on senior night, not in our house. CU should have held on at Kansas State the last time when they were leading in the last five minutes after coming back from being EIGHTEEN points down.

Okay that was major venting but needed to be said.

[This message has been edited by kate dawg (edited 01-31-2002).]

[Big12Bear]

Despite the 1-3 start, I like where the Lady Bears are sitting. Now 5-3, I still predict an 11-5 finish. Where would that put us in the conference race? Probably 3rd. All I want to do is host the subregionals. At 23-5, 11-5, provided we make the semis of the Big 12 Tourney, I like our chances.

I know I'm going out on a limb here, and it's almost too early to be thinking that far ahead, but when you've never hosted, it is a big deal!

[Bball Girl]

First, y'all are craaazzzy if you think Tech is going to lose to Texas again here at the USA. No way...no how.

My predictions for the 1st 8 teams

KSU
OU
Texas Tech/Baylor/Colorado/Texas tie
ISU
OSU

[DblT81]

I went over to Psyclone's schedule matrix on his site.
http://www1.cedar-rapids.net/psyclone/Big12BB.htm

(Thanks for that link, mred.)

Anyway, if you have MS Excel, the schedule matrix will download. I was able to copy in the 'W's and 'L's that I thought were likely for the remaining games. His matrix then sums up the results....totally awesome! If you try, be careful to remember that you are always marking whether the HOME team will win or lose. It was pretty confusing for me at the beginning. Here is where I ended up after filling in all the home team W's & L's:

1 Oklahoma 15-1
2 Kansas State 14-2
3 Texas Tech 11-5, Baylor 11-5
5 Texas 10-6, Colorado 10-6
7 Iowa State 8-8
8 Missouri 6-10, Oklahoma State 6-10
10 Texas A&M 2-14, Nebraska 2-14
12 Kansas 1-15

no science used, just wags on most of them, but the results looked OK to me. http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/biggrin.gif



[This message has been edited by DblT81 (edited 01-31-2002).]

[schooner2]

Originally posted by mred:
Missouri, OSU, and Texas A&M are all capable of beating anyone in the conference at any given time.

Maybe. But it would require a BAD game on the part of the Top 7. OSU was close to OU two nights ago cuz OU played bad. MU beat Tech when Tech played bad. A&M beat ISU cuz, well all the planets and stars came into alignment and ISU was just plain cursed that night and Rose had her career game.

[BEAR SKIN]

81 --

Who does Kansas beat? Careful now, don't upset Chipper.

[DblT81]

I refuse to incriminate myself and prefer to remain silent. http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/biggrin.gif

[ChipperF1]

I rip my own team, why should I be upset if someone else does it? http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/wink.gif

If you really think Kansas will beat Nebraska, then I would suggest seeking some sort of solid rehabilitation program. You really can kick the crystal meth habit. You really can http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif

[swok34]

ok, I went through and did my analysis I typically do at this time of the year and here's mine:

1) Oklahoma.....I'm a homer, doncha want to be a homer, too? http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif
15-1
2) Kansas State 14-2
3) tie between Texas Tech & Baylor 11-5, off to investigate
4) next tiebreaker rule, since I think they'll split.
5) Texas 10-6 ...wins head to head tiebreaker w/ISU
6) Iowa State 10-6
7) Colorado 9-7
8) Oklahoma State 7-9
9) Missouri 6-10
10) Texas A & M 3-13
11) Nebraska 2-14
12) Kansas 1-15

this could be bad, this could mean Bedlam at high noon in Kansas City............

[two cents]

swok,

Your cumulative win-loss record for the conference against itself is 99-93, which can't happen unless they start giving out points for overtimes like in hockey (Tech and UT would go for that I'm pretty sure).

I hesitate to mention this, because you have OU winning the remainder of their games and TTU splitting with BU. That means TTU has to have at least 6 losses. I hate to think about that and I'd kinda rather just go with your original projection, but I guess I'm curious to see how you think some of those games will play out. Maybe you were just trying to be extra nice to the fans of a few teams.

Just don't put all 3 of those extra losses on Tech in retribution for pointing out this quirk...please! http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/wink.gif

See. Some people do pay close attention to your posts.

[swok34]

uh oh, must have messed up on something........

I have OU winning out, Kansas State losing to OU, Baylor losing @ OU and @ ISU. Texas Tech losing @ Baylor and OU, Texas losing @Texas Tech, @ Baylor and to OU.......oops, already see one mistake where I picked both teams to win a game.

Thanks for pointing that out, two cents.....by the way, I only have ISU losing the game @ Kansas State and winning out the balance......
I still have a hard time swallowing that they are 3-5, just boggles my mind...

[mred]

Originally posted by swok34:
I still have a hard time swallowing that they are 3-5, just boggles my mind...

4-5, actually. They were 2-5 after the loss to Tech, and have since beaten Nebraska and Missouri.

[ISU3PointLand]

Okay, after today's happenings, here are my projections for how the conference will finish. I looked at each remaining game and took my best guess. I'm sure there are going to be upsets, but this is how I saw it.

Oklahoma 14-2
Kansas St. 13-3
Iowa St. 11-5
Baylor 10-6
Texas Tech 10-6
Colorado 10-6
Texas 9-7
Missouri 6-10
Oklahoma St.5-11
Texas A&M 4-12
Nebraska 3-13
Kansas 0-16 (Just don't see who they're gonna beat)

After head to head, what is the tie-breaker for seeding? Can anyone help me out on that?

[mred]

Originally posted by ISU3PointLand:

After head to head, what is the tie-breaker for seeding? Can anyone help me out on that?


Psyclone's web site has this as well.
http://www1.cedar-rapids.net/psyclone/Big12BB.htm

[schooner2]

Originally posted by ISU3PointLand:
After head to head, what is the tie-breaker for seeding? Can anyone help me out on that?

And you can find the answer on the official website here (http://big12.netfire.com/new/news/?id=420).

[BEAR SKIN]

ISU does have a favorable schedule (almost said easy schedule) for last of the regular season, but they will NOT go undefeated.

I do agree that one or more tiebreakers will be needed to separate the all important 4th (& possibly even 3rd) seed for the tournament. No one has won the tournament without that first day bye, have they?

[mred]

Originally posted by BEAR SKIN:
ISU does have a favorable schedule (almost said easy schedule) for last of the regular season, but they will NOT go undefeated.

Gee, why do you say that? http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif

[swok34]

ok, I sat down this morning, got my correct standings from the morning paper, listed out all the teams and who their remaining games were; got it all figured out...........and then Colorado went and beat Texas Tech and threw a complete wrink into the whole mess. http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/eek.gif http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/eek.gif

I've decided not to even try to predict the end of the conference race. http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif

Though I do, also, think that ISU goes undefeated through the rest of the season......and tie up Baylor for 3rd place. Of course that counts on Kansas State winning the rest of their games except for the OU game. The ISU/BU game could come down to the winner also be the tie-breaker for the tourney seeding.....

OU has 4 games that could be considered a toss-up and Kansas State may have trouble at Colorado. What a dog eat dog conference this is........but the SEC seems to be having the same fate.