Why, oh why is Stanford ranked so high?

[YCN]

OK, Stanford has a great record, right? So a 20-1 record deserves a #3 ranking, right?

Uh, think again. The Cardinal have won exactly 6 games against teams in the RPI top 50, Three of those wins were at home, against #44 UC Santa Barbara, #27 Penn State and #37 Santa Clara. They beat #43 Hawaii on the road and #29 Pepperdine.

Their highest ranked win was against #15 Minnesota on a neutral court. The Minnesota win is their only victory against an RPI top 25 team this season, and it wasn't on a hostile court.

Stanford lost at home by 6 to Tennessee.

But how can you argue against 20-1? I can argue against it this way - check out the RPI's for the other teams that they have defeated - 90,114,74,62,177,86,101,240,84,94,267,112,74,62,23 0.

Their remaining games are against 230,94,84,112,267,86,177.

Pardon me if I express my personal opinion that Stanford's #3 ranking in both polls is rank.

That's right, it just plain stinks. Does anybody who votes in these polls notice these little things? Why don't we offer a comparison, a team that the pollsters agree is not as good - Oklahoma.

Of OU's 7 wins over teams in the RPI top 50, 6 were against teams in the RPI top 25 - #6 Purdue, #24 Illinois, #16 Colorado, #12 Texas Tech, #25 Baylor and #8 Texas. Three of those wins were against teams ranked higher than any team Stanford has defeated this year.

The win over Purdue was on a neutral court, and the wins over Texas Tech and Baylor were on the road. Oklahoma's losses have been against RPI #2 Connecticut and #11 Iowa State, both on the road.

OU has also defeated #30 TCU at home.

The RPI's of the other teams OU has defeated - 136,111,293,60,152,168,169,72,147,72.

Their remaining opponents - 189,25,147,10,70,8,42,12. Four remaining games are against teams in the RPI top 25.

Stanford's SOS is #23 (how?) and OU's is #5. Stanford's highest ranked remaining opponent has an RPI of 84.

Six of OU's 8 remaining opponents are ranked #70 or higher.

Just one more thing. Stanford's loss to Tennessee by 6 at home.

Tennessee was being slaughtered at home in front of the largest crowd in women's basketball history before scoring the final points to make the game look semi-respectable.

Oklahoma was almost even with Connecticut on the road before a sell-out crowd with 6 minutes remaining, before running out of players and gas, and eventually losing by virtually the same score as Tennessee.

So you tell me - how can Stanford be ranked above Oklahoma?

Even a complete idiot can see that this ranking is unjust.


[This message has been edited by YCN (edited 01-31-2002).]

[This message has been edited by YCN (edited 01-31-2002).]

[This message has been edited by YCN (edited 01-31-2002).]

[This message has been edited by YCN (edited 01-31-2002).]

[KSUron]

Originally posted by YCN:
- how can Stanford be ranked above Oklahoma?

Even a complete idiot can see that this ranking is unjust.


Well see there, I agree with you and I knew sooner or later my mental capcity would be revealed. Part of the problem with a team like this is no one (including Stanford) CAN know how good they are. I propose as a solution that the first Big 12 team they play knock them off (if Stanford gets that far).

[YCN]

KSUron, I would respectfully submit that the first Big 12 team that Stanford should play would be OU, since Stanford's media, head coach and fans spent the majority of last year not promoting their team, but in a coordinated assassination attempt against the character of the Sooner basketball team.

That is something that will stay in my craw forever, especially since I always though that Tara VanDerVeer was a basketball goddess.

Guess I was wrong.

[KSUron]

I take your point but, the way the seeding will probably go, one of the rest of us will probably get to them before you do.

[YCN]

Ron, you are welcome to them. We beat them last year, and if we don't play them this year, it won't break my heart.

[schooner2]

Coach Coale was asked this exact thing this past week. She said Stanford is probably deserving of the ranking until they get beat in conference.

If this were football, I'd worry. But it ain't. There is this wonderful thing called the NCAA Tourney and it just don't matter.

If somehow it cost OU a #1 seed - then I may get a bit upset. But if it came down to Stanford and OU for a 4th #1 seed, then I would be surprised if they gave Stanford the nod since clearly OU has had a much tougher schedule. The selection committee values tough schedules.

But the bottom line for me is that I think a great team should always hope to be a 1,2, or 3 seed. The difference between those is really not that great at all in the tourney.

[DblT81]

I wasn't going to bring this up until the NCAA tourney was here but I guess I'll jump in right now.

We all know how tough the Big 12 is..... every single game, no nights off. But, as the post seasons begin to add up for the Big 12, I have doubts that the Big 12 is really the toughest conference as a result of it having the best teams in the nation. Maybe it is merely a tough conference because the teams are good, not great, and are evenly matched.

The reason I say this.... I think swok can tell you I am a big supporter of the Big 12 on the ESPN message board, or at least I was last year. I posted time and again defending the Big 12 in the debate over whether it was a tough conf last year. For some of last year, the B12 had the top conf RPI, and for the first time ever another conf, the B12, beat the SEC in out of conference (OOC) winning percentage. I was elated when the B12 got 4 teams to the Sweet 16 (Missouri, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Tech). But that was it.

Since the first Big 12 season in 1997, only two B12 teams have been to the Elite 8-Iowa State in 1999 and Texas Tech in 2000. Sure-several B12 teams have been to the Elite 8 before the B12 was formed, but in the most recent 5 years, only 2 to the Elite 8 and NONE to the Final 4. Period. Bottom line.

You can't say the B12 is THE toughest conf if it doesn't even have one of the top 8 teams at the end of the season. You can argue with RPI %’s and all kinds of stats, believe me, I tried. But it is winning the head to head matchups in the NCAA tourney that prove who the best teams are and the B12 has come up short.

I know Baylor fans were giddy to get to the dance last season and I'm sure Kansas St fans will have a similar feeling. I think that is great. I’m not belittling making the NCAA tourney as a nothing deal. It is something to be proud of. But we can't stand around patting each other on the back and saying the B12 is the toughest, and wins in this conference mean something BIG, when all that has been proven in the last 5 years is that the B12 has good teams, but not great teams. IMHO, making the NCAA tourney and even the Sweet 16, means you have a good team, not a great one. Greatness comes from being in the top 10 which means making the Regional Finals. (DUCK… INCOMING!)

After having my hat handed to me after the regional semi-finals (Sweet 16) by the other conference fans, I find it difficult to argue with them. There is a message right now on espn that says KSU doesn't deserve a top 5 ranking because the only top 25 teams they have beaten are B12 teams and the entire B12 played a mediocre OOC schedule this season so the RPI of every B12 team is inflated, just like last year. Even though, as my Dad would say, I can argue with a fence post, I have very little substance to back up any argument this season that the Big 12 is not overrated. I’m NOT saying the Big 12 is overrated, I’m saying that I don’t have much ammunition to say the B12 is not. Trust me, if you argue RPI, that argument will be shoved back down your throat as a worthless numbers play. Its fun to see the rankings and ratings and all that stuff and debate among the B12 fans-- who should be higher among the B12 teams—but it is wins and losses against the elite teams of the other conferences that matter.

So which is better, Curtain No. 1-a conference that has 8 good teams or Curtain No. 2 a conference that has 1 great team? I bet money the fans on this board would pick the former, but the rest of the vocal wcbb fans would say the later. They have the rings. I would certainly rather watch the games behind Curtain No. 1.

The Point? (Thank goodness) What the point is not: to rile up the masses. The point is: that I have run out of steam to fight the battle of "B12 teams should be ranked higher". There is little use to fight that battle until some B12 teams actually dance more than a couple of dances in the post season ball.

OK, so the original question was about Stanford, a team that comes from a conference that has maybe 1 great/good team, Stanford, and no other good teams. But maybe they are all good. The P10 was supposed to be crummy last year too, but Washington sure showed OU who was better when it counted. One of KSU’s losses this season comes from a P10 team.

I would be happy if my team were ranked #4. I would be happier still if they proved they are at least #4 at the end of the season. In the meantime, I have learned not to worry about who is ranked ahead of them.

[YCN]

Good post, DblT81.

I will concede that OU lost to the Huskies last year, and shouldn't have. I'm also aware that after losing Jen Cunningham last year the Sooners were never the same team. This was a veteran junior that was finally rounding into the dominating F/P player that we knew she could be.

From that point in the season, although OU continued to win, the overall results versus expectations had trended steadily downhill.

I don't want to compare this year to last. Yes, the selection committee sandbagged the Sooners by putting Stanford and ORU in OU's subregional, and yes - while OU was most deserving of staying in region for the Sweet Sixteen we got sent out to eastern Washington. That is what happens when the second best team in the region has twice the attendance that your team has.

The Big 12 hasn't been around long enough to really develop a reputation as a conference that can't hack it when postseason comes around, and you and I both know it.

Yes, all four Big 12 teams in the Sweet 16 lost the regional semifinal games, but only two outcomes were surprising.

My original post was about who deserves to be ranked where, and I don't see anything in the performance of Stanford and Oklahoma that says OU shouldn't be ranked ahead of Stanford. We did beat them, after all - twice just last year.

We will see what happens down the stretch, and for all I know, the Big 12 might not get a team into the Sweet Sixteen.

But it wouldn't surprise me one bit if KSU won the conference title!

Want to bet on it? (not the conference title, the bet is whether or not the Big 12 makes it to San Antonio for the Final Four.

I'll give you 2-1 odds that at least one Big 12 team gets there.

[added this to my post briefly after my original post]
According to RPI rankings, the Pac-10 has played the 9th toughest schedule of all NCAA D-I conferences, behind the SEC, Big 12, Big 10, ACC, Big East, Mountain West, Conference USA and West Coast conferences. It's pretty clear that any standing the Pac-10 has is based on perception, not reality.


[This message has been edited by YCN (edited 01-31-2002).]

[KSUron]

DblT81, we are actually not that far apart in our thinking on this except I'm in my "wise guy" phase tonight. If Stanford is as good as advertised one of the Big 12 teams will likely get a shot at them. One team will win and the other will lose and we will draw the appropriate conclusions. Maybe if things don't go the way I would like two or more B-12 teams will play them.

Where we do part company a little bit is that I think we B-12 fans tend to take the "Final Four" argument a little to seriously. Yeah, I know its easy for me, the newbie, to say. But consider that having a quarter of the last 16 teams standing was an accpomplishment too, and so was the rest of our season.

I think there is no doubt that Uconn and Tenn and other established teams have to be respected for the powers they are, but that does not make the B-12 a second class conference. If getting to the final four is the only true measure of the value of a conference then the Missouri Valley is clearly better than the Big XII. I don't think so.

On the other hand I am not about to go on the ESPN boards and try to talk like this. In the first place the talk including mine is just talk. The players and Coaches play the game and we get to watch and cheer (and talk). The game results will speak for themselves when the year is in the books and then we can start up our talk for next year. I feel comfortable to express my thoughts on this board but in truth I am just enjoying basketball and I don't want to offend anyone.

I don't think there is any argument we can come up with that will make everyone belive the Big 12 is best, and if OU had won the NC last year a new argument would have come up to show the "weakness" of the conference. Btw if OU had won it all I would have been extreemly happy but it would not have made ANY of the other 11 teams better than SEC teams or B-10. P-10, or SEC teams. You have to go out and play each game and when each is over you get to savor the results.

I do think we can easily get to carried away and I expect thats a big part of your point. I hope the new KSU fans on those other boards don't get too carried away. Cheers and good luck to all the conference teams when we play other teams. I will confess I did cheer for SMS last year though. Jackie was hard to resist.

[DblT81]

I have been told, and I can understand the reasoning, that RPI Strength of Schedule, is not a very valuable tool to compare conferences once conference play begins. Something about your opponent's opponent include you, and then some teams are played twice, so it is skewed. I'm not sure about that so if somebody can throw clearasil on it and clear that up, I'd appreciate it.

Anyway, stats can be pulled to justify about any position. Let's look at Non-Conference Strength of Schedule by conference.

Go to a usefull RPI site that you can sort and include different data:
http://www.latech.edu/~dan/wbball/fullrpi.epl

Uncheck all the default boxes and just check the ones that say something about Non-conference record and non-conference schedule & opponents and the like. At the bottom of the criteria selection, next to the "Sorted By" button is a drop down box. Select "Non-conference Strength of Schedule" and then in the next box select "Big 12", then click on the "Sorted By" button. As of Jan 31, the Big 12 had 2 teams in the top 30 in non-conf SOS. (Note: Texas isn't there but they should move up after the Tennessee game-don't know how far).

Now go back up and select Pac 10 in the conference drop down box and click on the Sorted By button again. As of Jan 31, the PAC 10 had 5 teams in the top 30 in non-conf SOS. Half the conference! Based on these RPI numbers, Schales' web site does intend to replicate the actual RPI, half the PAC 10 played very tough non-conference schedules.

This comparison also shows that Stanford was 10-1 against the 10th ranked Non-conf SOS while OU was 8-1 against the 20th ranked Non-conf SOS.

OK, so the B12 teams overall had a better non-conf record than the P10, but the SOS would show that more of the B12 teams did play easier schedules. So maybe the B12 RPI is "stuffed with fluff".

I'm not trying to diss OU or build Stanford up and I certainly do not think the P10 is better than the B12. I am just showing you an example of what I had thrown up against me last season when I attempted to make similar arguments of what you are saying right now, YCN.

Most of you are not new to wcbb, but you may be new to the message board/debate wars. I'm just warning you that it is a hard, cold world out there if you intend to take your debate beyond the warm and fuzzy confines of HoopScoop.

Of course I wouldn't have any problems if I could always take the high road like SWOK. She just says nice things all the time and carries high the OU banner. She doesn't let the naysayers get under her skin. I, on the other hand, was bound and determined to prove them wrong. I was doing pretty good too, IMHO, until all the B12 teams lost. http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/frown.gif

[DblT81]

OR, YCN, forget about the polls and just look at this page. It will make you feel much better:
http://www.vaporia.com/sports/wcpage.html

[dem]

Well, here is the bottom line as of now:

Top 7 Big 12 vs. teams currently ranked on either poll:

OU vs. Purdue W
OU vs. UConn L
Texas vs. Wisconsin W
Texas vs. LSU W
ISU vs. Auburn W
Texas Tech vs. Duke L
Texas Tech vs. Vandy W
CU vs. Vandy L
CU vs. CSU L
CU vs. Florida L
CU vs. LSU W


If we go deeper than the top 25, including the next 10 teams on each poll, we have:

KSU vs. ASU L
KSU vs. Georgia Tech W
OU vs. Illinois W
OU vs. TCU W
ISU vs. Miss. St. W
ISU vs. Iowa W
ISU vs. DePaul W
ISU vs. Drake W
CU vs. Iowa W
Texas vs. Penn St. L


That, I believe, accounts for every single game this season between the top 7 teams in the Big 12 and the other teams in the top 38 or so according to either poll.


Summary:

Top 7 Big 12 team vs. (currently) higher ranked team (ESPN poll):

W: 2 L: 4


Top 7 Big 12 team vs. (currently) lower ranked team (ESPN poll):

W: 12 L: 3


Bottom Line: Big 12 team defends its ranking: 14 games
Big 12 team doesn't defend its ranking: 3 games

Grand total evidence that Big 12 is overrated: 3 games, vs. 14 that say it isn't.

And if someone wants to ride that "Final Four" argument really hard, ask them how many SEC teams were in St. Louis last year.

As far as this year's tournament, well, we'll just have to wait and see. Right now, I like the odds.

[dem]

DblT81, there's something strange about those non-conference SOS numbers you referred to. I posted the analysis below on Jan. 11 (on the ESPN board), pretty early in the conference season, when SOS numbers were overwhelmingly from non-conference games:

__________________________________________________ _______________
Regarding SOS:

As KSUron71 suggested, it depends on which part of the conferences you're comparing. Big XII SOS is dragged way down by Texas A&M at 305. But if you compare the SOS ranks of the top half of the Big XII, SEC, and Big X to each other [i.e., the top six schools in each] you get:

SEC: 1 + 12 + 14 + 19 + 40 + 55 = 141

Big X: 2 + 16 + 18 + 23 + 26 + 30 = 115

Big XII: 3 + 4 + 5 + 8 + 15 + 24 = 59

And, whatever may have been true before, and whether or not the Big XII gets into the Final Four this year, the top half (or 7) of the Big XII is far stronger nationally this year than they ever have been in the past.

[dem]

Still haven't quite figured out those stats. Note, though, that if you sort on "Non-Conference SOS" you get 5 Big 12 teams and 5 PAC 10 teams among the top 33 (but all 5 PAC 10 in the top 23).

[Bark]

With only one loss (possibly two by the NCAAs) Stanford will get a 1-2 or at worst a 3 seed, host in the first weekend, and advance.

But they will lose in the second weekend, so who cares?

Actually anybody in the top 25 should hope to be in the same bracket as Stanford. They are way overated.

[ChipperF1]

"What? Me Worry?"

My good friend Alfred E. Neumann had the right idea.

Why is Stanford #3? Who knows? Personally, I've seen this team play. They are good, I don't know if they are #3 good, but in this wild season, who is that good?

February will mean more than ever before, for everybody from the America East to the West Coast. So much will ride on this month's games. In my mind, maybe 10 schools are assured of an NCAA tournament berth. That's 54 spots still up for grabs.

So why even get into the RPI debate right now, and get in all these firefights with people who can't name the teams in the Big 12? Especially on that ESPN board (which I strongly endorse avoiding because its nothing more than Tennessee and UConn fans trying to outattitude each other. It's just the typical "we rule, you suck" Jim Rome, testoterone-charged, no-brain cell prattle with a hair more estrogen involved.

I prefer what we have here. We trash talk, we contend, we have fun, but we also know what we are talking about. And our knowledge is clouded by our ability to be insulting.

About the RPI....Just win as many games as you can, and the RPI will take care of itself.
About seedings...#1 seed? #2 seed? what is difference? The goal in March is to beat whatever team is put in front of you. It doesn't matter if its UConn or Kansas. Beat the team placed in front of you. Do it six straight times, you are National Champion. Fail to do it once, you go home.



[This message has been edited by ChipperF1 (edited 02-01-2002).]

[swok34]

Of course I wouldn't have any problems if I could always take the high road like SWOK. She just says nice things all the time and carries high the OU banner. She doesn't let the naysayers get under her skin. I, on the other hand, was bound and determined to prove them wrong. I was doing pretty good too, IMHO, until all the B12 teams lost

uh, have you noticed, dblt, how very little time I've actually spent over there this year........I'm not sure who ticks me off worse......Louisiana Tech or Stanford......there are a couple of Stanford fans that I like, ok 1......and 1 I really, really don't like......so, I think LA Tech is the worst....they really carry on about the Big 12. Perhaps they are still ticked off at Baylor's KMR.....but that was a LA Tech Admin huge boo-boo. I'm glad, I really like see coaches like KMR in the Big 12.

I actually haven't even read 90% of the messages over at the ESPN board the last month. Once we start conference play, I am super-absorbed in the Big 12 and just mainly keep up with scores, injuries as far as the other teams are concerned.

Why is Stanford ranked higher than OU? Because OU lost to Iowa State. period.........as long as the Big 12 holds 7 teams in the Top 20, even the Top 25.....I'm not too concerned. Rankings are nice, your name ticks along the bottom of the ESPN screen, your scores show up on the front page of Yahoo. People probably pay attention to you a little more than if you are a Montana Technical Institute.... http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif

all that matters in the grand scheme of things is that we get somebody to San Antonio this year, please????......

In the pre-season press conference this year, Sherri Coale said that she felt we needed a final four appearance by the Big 12 to make the conference legitimate. KMR didn't feel that was a necessary thing to legitimatize the conference, she felt it was already standing on it's own merit.

I would just as soon OU not see Stanford before the final 4, or at all would be fine with me......btw, OU returns it's game with Stanford next season in California.....but it will be a completely different OU team than the one they played last year.

Right now the #1 seeds are projected as: Connecticut, Tennessee, Stanford and Oklahoma......with Oklahoma going through Tennessee to make the championship game......fine, fine by me. That puts Stanford over on Connecticut's side of the bracket. I hope this plays out, though we are only half way through the conference. It doesn't look like a Duke or a Vanderbilt will be vying for that last #1 seed as happened last year.....

hmmmmmmm, if KSU wins the Big 12 and the conference tourney, do they get the #1 seed?????

[Jennifer]

Originally posted by swok34:
[b]Right now the #1 seeds are projected as: Connecticut, Tennessee, Stanford and Oklahoma......with Oklahoma going through Tennessee to make the championship game......fine, fine by me. That puts Stanford over on Connecticut's side of the bracket. I hope this plays out, though we are only half way through the conference. It doesn't look like a Duke or a Vanderbilt will be vying for that last #1 seed as happened last year.....

Isn't Tennessee guard play suspect this year? OU/TN might be an interesting match-up, and one that could favor OU. Of course, they'd have to stay out of foul trouble on the inside. Still, that could be very interesting. I'd rather have to go through TN than Uconn.

[Zo31]

You all make very good points. I only watched Stanford on TV once thus far.....actually I had the TV on and was halfway paying attention. I don't recall who they were playing. The media has made a big issue of "Stanford's return to glory", along with coach Tara. http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/rolleyes.gif

It is a little presumptious to propel them that high at this point. They may get there, but only the tournament will tell.

I have never studied RPIs and SOSs much. I just enjoy watching a good game and I know some talent when I see it. Several of the Big VII teams could go a long way in the tournament. At this time, I want at LEAST two Big VII teams in San Antonio. It can happen.

[BEAR SKIN]

Zo -- there you go again, trying to slice 5 teams from the conference. You and I should be more careful -- remember which school's name is often prominently mentioned as not belonging, during football season.

Actually, this season could well turn into the Big II, unless ISU this saturday, or BU on Tuesday, does something about OU and KSU turning this into a two team race.

[DblT81]

This is a great discussion!

Zo has the right perspective:
I just enjoy watching a good game and I know some talent when I see it.

And Zo again:
It is a little presumptious to propel (Stanford) that high at this point. They may get there, but only the tournament will tell.
This statement is true of Stanford and all the teams, B12 included.


Now how do we get every single B12 wbb game televised so we don't miss classics like KSU/Texas again?

[pawball]

Well, I stuck my skinny neck out onto the ESPN board about K-State and the Big 12, then came over here and found this intrepid discussion. I am an SMS fan; taken my swing for y'all, think your conference is so much stronger this year than last, hate the fact that the added strength the past few years has really made it extra tough for a mid-major like us to get who we want in recruiting but love seeing what's going on with the very high quality of ball being played practically every dang night in your league. Plus, I kinda fell in love with K-State when I saw them play last weekend. Don't tell The ChipMan... Creighton has a cool, cool team.

[swok34]

pawball, sure would like to adopt Southwest Missouri State into the Big 12 where women's basketball team is concerned.... http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/smile.gif

Wichita State would definitely NOT BE invited to participate....

[pawball]

Thanks for the invite, Swok. Our volleyball team's worth moving up too, btw.