YCN
02-13-2004, 11:54 AM
I regularly pore over the rankings and such at Jerry Palm's CollegeRPI.com site. It's an easy place to stay on top of where teams stand in the RPI, which is one of the important factors in the NCAA selection process.
It's getting toward that time of year where people start talking about this team and that, if they will make the tournament, and what their seedings might be.
As recently as February 3rd my Sooners were languishing around #36 in the RPI rankings, with a projected finish at 7-9 in the Big 12, and 17-10 overall. With the win at Texas Tech, the projection has taken a dramatic turn for the better.
While you always have to take projections with a grain of salt (Baylor was projected to lose at Missouri, for instance), it is a fairly accurate predictor of how teams will perform generally, and it gets more accurate as the season goes along.
Yesterday the Sooners were ranked #32 in the RPI with a projected finish at #34. Today they are at #28, with a projected finish at #22. All it took was a good day for OU's non-conference opponents, which bumped OU's RPI up enough to change the predicted outcome of one game to make OU's projected RPI soar.
After almost a month of consistently projecting at 7-9 and 17-10, beating Tech put OU at a projected 8-8 (3-3 in their last 6 games) and 18-9 overall. The bump now projects the Sooners rather healthily into a #6 seed position for the NCAA tournament, with good enough "vitals" to quite possibly jump them to a #5.
Boy did I need that good news! Of course, it won't mean a thing if OU doesn't match that projection by their performance on the court.
But if they do match the projection, I'll go ahead right now and predict that they would get a #5 seed in the NCAA tournament. Nobody behind #22 in the projected RPI would look to have better credentials, while OU would have a better "portfolio" than several teams who's RPI's are projected to be better.
Just for reference, here is where the Big 12 teams stand in the RPI right now, and their projected record and RPI at the end of the regular season:
<PRE style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt;">
--------------------
Curr Proj Team W-L
---- ---- ---- -----
6 6 UT 25-4
7 7 KSU 23-4
9 11 CU 23-5
13 17 TT 23-7
17 21 BU 22-6
28 22 OU 19-8
35 36 NU 19-8
39 40 MU 16-11
90 113 ISU 11-16
100 125 TAMU 8-19
106 128 KU 11-16
118 145 OSU 8-19
--------------------
</PRE>
As of this moment, the Big 12 looks solid for 7 teams in the NCAA tournament. While UT's projected RPI is #6, make no mistake: they easily have the credentials to get a top regional seed even with projected losses at CU and Tech.
Right now I would project Texas as a #1 seed, KSU as a #2, CU a #3, Tech as a #3, Baylor a #4, OU at #5, and Nebraska as a #7 or #8.
Missouri's RPI is good enough to project them into the NCAA tournament, but their portfolio is woefully slim. To put it bluntly, I think they need a win over a top 25 team to get in, or possibly a road win over a top 50. Their only remaining chances are at home against Tech and KSU, and at Nebraska.
Even then, they would probably need a win in the Big 12 tournament to cement a birth. Otherwise they would be hovering at the edge of the WNIT precipice. Missouri's best road or neutral win was over #90 Iowa State, and they are 4-8 against top 100 teams, having lost five games at home.
For ISU, A&M, KU and OSU, it appears that the only chance of reaching the NCAA tournament would be an improbable run to the championship in the Big 12 tourney.
[This message has been edited by YCN (edited 02-13-2004).]
It's getting toward that time of year where people start talking about this team and that, if they will make the tournament, and what their seedings might be.
As recently as February 3rd my Sooners were languishing around #36 in the RPI rankings, with a projected finish at 7-9 in the Big 12, and 17-10 overall. With the win at Texas Tech, the projection has taken a dramatic turn for the better.
While you always have to take projections with a grain of salt (Baylor was projected to lose at Missouri, for instance), it is a fairly accurate predictor of how teams will perform generally, and it gets more accurate as the season goes along.
Yesterday the Sooners were ranked #32 in the RPI with a projected finish at #34. Today they are at #28, with a projected finish at #22. All it took was a good day for OU's non-conference opponents, which bumped OU's RPI up enough to change the predicted outcome of one game to make OU's projected RPI soar.
After almost a month of consistently projecting at 7-9 and 17-10, beating Tech put OU at a projected 8-8 (3-3 in their last 6 games) and 18-9 overall. The bump now projects the Sooners rather healthily into a #6 seed position for the NCAA tournament, with good enough "vitals" to quite possibly jump them to a #5.
Boy did I need that good news! Of course, it won't mean a thing if OU doesn't match that projection by their performance on the court.
But if they do match the projection, I'll go ahead right now and predict that they would get a #5 seed in the NCAA tournament. Nobody behind #22 in the projected RPI would look to have better credentials, while OU would have a better "portfolio" than several teams who's RPI's are projected to be better.
Just for reference, here is where the Big 12 teams stand in the RPI right now, and their projected record and RPI at the end of the regular season:
<PRE style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt;">
--------------------
Curr Proj Team W-L
---- ---- ---- -----
6 6 UT 25-4
7 7 KSU 23-4
9 11 CU 23-5
13 17 TT 23-7
17 21 BU 22-6
28 22 OU 19-8
35 36 NU 19-8
39 40 MU 16-11
90 113 ISU 11-16
100 125 TAMU 8-19
106 128 KU 11-16
118 145 OSU 8-19
--------------------
</PRE>
As of this moment, the Big 12 looks solid for 7 teams in the NCAA tournament. While UT's projected RPI is #6, make no mistake: they easily have the credentials to get a top regional seed even with projected losses at CU and Tech.
Right now I would project Texas as a #1 seed, KSU as a #2, CU a #3, Tech as a #3, Baylor a #4, OU at #5, and Nebraska as a #7 or #8.
Missouri's RPI is good enough to project them into the NCAA tournament, but their portfolio is woefully slim. To put it bluntly, I think they need a win over a top 25 team to get in, or possibly a road win over a top 50. Their only remaining chances are at home against Tech and KSU, and at Nebraska.
Even then, they would probably need a win in the Big 12 tournament to cement a birth. Otherwise they would be hovering at the edge of the WNIT precipice. Missouri's best road or neutral win was over #90 Iowa State, and they are 4-8 against top 100 teams, having lost five games at home.
For ISU, A&M, KU and OSU, it appears that the only chance of reaching the NCAA tournament would be an improbable run to the championship in the Big 12 tourney.
[This message has been edited by YCN (edited 02-13-2004).]