Bracket Prediction

[GoggleGuy]

So, you wonder why those meteorologists on TV never seem to know what they're talking about? That's because during their Advanced Synoptic Meteorology classes at OU, they were busy filling out mock brackets for the women's tournament.

A brief word about the bracket: it ain't easy this year. The predetermined sites make certain that you have to bump seeds around from where you like to be. I haven't thoroughly checked to make sure that conference foes are meeting too early either, so that might change things around. I also haven't checked for regular season non-con matchups unless a blatently obvious one clonked me on the head (like I almost scheduled Notre Dame at Purdue).

Much like Jerry Palm's bracket, current conference leaders are given the automatic bid until their tournament is actually won. Unlike his bracket, Oklahoma isn't 12th.

Without further ado, here is GoggleGuy's 2nd annual MegaMegaBracketFest Prediction:

* * *

Mideast Region

@ Knoxville, TN
1. Tennessee
16. Central Florida
8. Georgia Tech
9. Chattanooga

@ Ruston, LA
5. Louisiana Tech
12. Austin Peay
4. Boston College
13. Creighton

@ Athens, GA
6. Georgia
11. Virginia
3. Texas
14. W. Kentucky

@ Raleign, NC
7. Notre Dame
10. Auburn
2. Villanova
15. Manhattan

Regional Championship: Knoxville, TN

* * *

Midwest Region

@ Albuquerque, NM
1. Duke
16. Texas San Antonio
8. New Mexico
9. Texas Christian

@ Norfolk, VA
5. Arkansas
12. Tulane
4. Rutgers
13. Old Dominion

@ Boulder, CO
6. Colorado
11. Washington
3. Mississippi State
14. Maine

@ W. Lafayette, IN
7. Virginia Tech
10. Xavier
2. Purdue
15. Toledo

Regional championship: Albuquerque, NM

* * *

East Region

@ Storrs, CT
(why this isn't scheduled for Hartford, I don't know)
1. Connecticut
16. Hampton
8. Illinois
9. Pepperdine

@ University Park, PA
5. George Washington
12. Liberty
4. Penn State
13. Florida Int'l

@ Cincinnati, OH
6. South Carolina
12. Cincinnati
3. Vanderbilt
14. Western Illinois

@ Lubbock, TX
7. Arizona
10. St. Joseph
2. Texas Tech
15. St. Francis (Pennsylvania)

East Regional Championship: Dayton, OH

* * *

West Region

@ Norman, OK
1. Louisiana State
16. Alabama State
8. De Paul
9. Oklahoma

@ Stanford, CA
5. Ohio State
12. UC San Bernadino
4. Stanford
13. Siena

@ Eugene, OR
6. Utah
11. Harvard
3. North Carolina
14. Holy Cross

@ Manhattan, KS
7. Minnesota
10. Wisconsin-Green Bay
2. Kansas State
15. Weber State

Regional championship: Stanford, California

* * *

LAST FOUR IN:
Washington (14-6 Pac 10 record)
Tulane (8-5 on the road, 3-3 vs. top 50)
Siena (12-3 on the road, 9-1 for the last 10)
Fla. Int'l (22nd best non-conferenece RPI, very last one in)

FIRST FOUR OUT:
Colorado State (3-10 on the road)
Iowa (3-7 on the road, 4-6 in last 10)
Michigan State (101 best non-conference RPI)
Brigham Young (RPI of 57...not enough slots left)

My prediction: Tennessee over UCONN.

[GoggleGuy]

Oh yeah, in case you didn't know:

Final Four: Atlanta, GA
Mideast v. Midwest
East v. West

[DblT81]

Good job of putting that together Guy.

I too think Purdue might have moved up to a 2 with their B11 tournament win and North Carolina's loss in the ACC final.

Stanford may not be a real 4 seed, but it is hard to work them up and get the host thing for the regional correct. I think maybe Stanford gets a 3 or better so the #1 seed in the West is not playing Stanford on its home court in the regional semi-final. Not sure which "3" gets pushed down to a 4 to accomodate that. Maybe an SEC team.

[grojc]

Googleguy, what is your logic placing the Big 12 Champion a three seed and a team it beat twice a 2 seed? I've noticed this trend on womenscollegehoops. All UT did was win last week, but then they dropped them to a three seed. I personally don't care. I think this team likes it when they get no respect. But since you are posting, why the lack of respect?

[GoggleGuy]

Originally posted by grojc:
Googleguy, what is your logic placing the Big 12 Champion a three seed and a team it beat twice a 2 seed?. . . why the lack of respect?



Why the lack of respect for Texas? Becasue I live in Norman. :-)

No, there really is a method there. It goes beyond total RPI where Tech is 5th and Texas is 11th. Texas Tech has the 2nd best non-conference RPI out there. They also have a stellar 9-2 road record (11-3 when you toss in neutral courts).

Meanwhile, Texas has only the 40th best non-conference RPI, which has them firmly sandwiched between Chattanooga and Xavier. The 'Horns have a road record of 7-5. I'll agree, a 7-5 road record is something to be darn happy about, but it's not as good as Tech.

Beating a team twice certainly counts in the conference tournament seeding, but for NCAA bracketing the non-conference season comes into play, too. That 7-4 record does come back to haunt.

Texas has a good shot at winning it all this weekend, though, and would more than likely push them up to a 2 seed and either KSU or Tech to a three. But if the season ended today, this is how I feel it would work out.

By the way, there is a conflict: At the east regional pod at Cincy, I have South Carolina and Vandy in the same pod. I can't just swap South Carolina out of the East with Utah out of the West because the Lady Gamecocks (that's not really their name, is it?) have already played North Carolina this season. I'll have to get back on you about that one.

Not right now, though, I really have to get back to reading <u>The Rise of Silas Lapham</u>. Stupid school related stuff happening during the month of March.

[This message has been edited by GoggleGuy (edited 03-11-2003).]

[GoggleGuy]

Bah.

Kansas State played Weber State. Fortunately, everyone is out of town in Dallas so no one has called me on anything silly like that.

So, here's some revised pods:

MW Region
@ Lubbock
7. Arizona
10. St. Joseph's
2. Texas Tech
15. Weber State

E region
@ Cincy
6. Minnesota
11. Cincy
3. Vandy
14. W. Illinois (The Westerwinds! They get the award for least common name between teams of different genders at the same university The men are the Leathernecks)

W Region
@KSU
7. South Carolina
10. UW Green Bay
2. Kansas State
15. St. Francis PA

Okay, I think I've got this down. I'm sure in 20 minutes I'll find another improper issue, and I'll have amended it further, and then tonight a whole bunch of schools will make tremendous runs through their conference championships, and the whole house of cards will have fallen.

[snizave]

K-State also already played Wisconson GB. Sorry goggleguy


Originally posted by GoggleGuy:
Bah.

Kansas State played Weber State. Fortunately, everyone is out of town in Dallas so no one has called me on anything silly like that.

So, here's some revised pods:

MW Region
@ Lubbock
7. Arizona
10. St. Joseph's
2. Texas Tech
15. Weber State

E region
@ Cincy
6. Minnesota
11. Cincy
3. Vandy
14. W. Illinois (The Westerwinds! They get the award for least common name between teams of different genders at the same university The men are the Leathernecks)

W Region
@KSU
7. South Carolina
10. UW Green Bay
2. Kansas State
15. St. Francis PA

Okay, I think I've got this down. I'm sure in 20 minutes I'll find another improper issue, and I'll have amended it further, and then tonight a whole bunch of schools will make tremendous runs through their conference championships, and the whole house of cards will have fallen.

[GoggleGuy]

Originally posted by snizave:
K-State also already played Wisconson GB. Sorry goggleguy




Jeez...I was CERTAIN that said UW Milwaukee when I read it earlier. Okay, swap St. Joe's and UWGB between West and Midwest.

Oh, and everyone else is welcome to try doing this. It's really a lot of fun.

[JK]

I don't know whether or not my Lady Horns like it when there's a lack of respect... but I LOVE IT! As most of you have noticed you haven't heard much out of me this year. I'm just sitting back watching everybody eat crow!!!!! But seriously, if anybody thinks that Villanova would get a #2 Seed over Texas (or KSU or Texas Tech), then there needs to be an appointment made for a CAT Scan!!! If the Lady Horns stay on track and take the Big 12 Tourney, then they get a #1 Seed along with UConn, LSU, and Duke -- No question about it. Remember, we DID defeat Tennessee, right? However, should Tech or KSU win the Big 12 Tourney then things would change a bit. I think if either of those two won in convincing fashion, they may slide in there for that other #1 Seed. If any of you saw the SEC Tourney, Tennessee did not look good in any of their games, and that will be in the back of the minds of the selection committee. But Villanova seeded ahead of UT, KSU, or Tech? PLEASE!!!!!! Give me a break... give us ALL a break!!!!

[Jennifer]

I think TN will still get a #1 seed, because they are TN and they won the SEC. Sure, TX beat them on a last second shot at Texas. I don't think that will weigh in to heavily with the SC.
Duke may be the top #1 now, then Uconn, LSU, TN. After that, who knows....
I'm just stating what I think the SC will do, now what I would do.

[JK]

You could be right Jen. Never know what the SC might do. I just don't see how anyone in their fair and honest minds could justify giving two #1 seeds to the SEC if the Horns were to win both the Regular Season Big 12 and the Tourney. I don't really care that much, actually... just like to see things done fairly. Besides, the Big 12 tourney title is still a couple of big obstacles away. I just hope my team stays focused one game at a time like they have been lately. If they do, I have a very good feeling about their post season. Tough game for OU today -- they almost pulled it off!!!

[labcoatguy]

Amazing, Goggle Guy.

I would try it too, but some of us actually have to pay attention in class.

[Court Jester]

I think it is already done with Duke, LSU, Tenn. and Uconn getting the 4 #1 seeds. Nothing will probably change that. I think the loser of the Tech/Ksu game tonight gets a #3 and the winner gets a #2. If UT wins the tourney then they get a #2. Anything else and they get a #3. Just my opinion.