My Apologies; Conference at mid-season

[JohnHenry]

OK, sorry - I got carried away on that other thread. But only ISU and Tech have finished higher than Texas every year of the Big 12. Jody made some sacrifices while she was building Top 20 programs in other sports as women's AD during the 90s. Still something to be said for consistency, though it was consistently mediocre for Texas.

But we're back, obviously. And I don't think we'll take another downturn like that again. We recruited lights-out this year and lose no seniors of much consequence next year - no offense to Tai, but we're covered as far as the backcourt goes, and big-time frontcourt help is on the way.

And OU is very tenacious, but they hit the great confluence last year and they simply don't have the experience or depth on board right now to sustain any kind of run in March. They'll surprise a few teams before the season is over due to their coaching and toughness, but they're obviously rebuilding now and will wither down the stretch.

Tech is easily the most talented team in the conference, but I just don't think they're very tough. That could change by March, but I think they'll lose two of those big games in Lubbock. I'll say KSU and OU, just to show there's no hard feelings.

ISU? Who knows? Stomped at home by a 2nd tier Mizzou team, then schooling KSU...they'll be the team that "nobody wants to play" in Dallas. Freaky Fennelly and his Daughters of Doom...

KSU - having a Great Confluence like OU in '02: great bunch of player with a good coach, executing and peaking together, with strong team leadership. Hope to see them in the Final Four, but depth could be problem. Wasn't so for OU last year, but I guess we'll see...

BAYLOR - weak schedule over-inflated their record; losing Lambert and Cockrom was like losing Jordan and Pippen. KMR will bring them back, but not this year. Need some playersand a couple more years. Oh, the plight of the Baylor fan...

CU - tough and well-coached, like OU, but just not enough talent on board.

I see TEXAS, right now, as the only team with all of the following going for them:

a) toughness (anybody else in Big 12 beaten 2 top 10 teams yet?)
b) strong, consistent defense
c) plenty of talent
d) great coach
e) DEPTH
f) solid floor leadership with Jamie back
g) Stacy Stephens

I'm sure i'm seeing this all through burnt-orange colored glasses, but all we need is for our shooting to get on track and we can go deep in March -IF we can sustain these advantages and pull a #3 in the dance so as not to draw UConn, Tenn, Duke, or Stanford (or LSU, dammit) in the Sweet 16.
A guys gotta dream, don't he?

Great conference. Sure is more fun to watch than the ol' SWC.
See ya'll Sunday for our practice session with A&M!

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[This message has been edited by JohnHenry (edited 02-05-2003).]

[Jimi]

I'm not sure I understand why you guys would want to avoid Tennessee? http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/wink.gif http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/wink.gif

[textom]

You may be right; Texas is always tough at home. But I'm still not convinced about Texas' toughness on the road.

h) a 16 point loss at unranked BYU.
i) a 7 point loss at unranked New Mexico.
j) a 4 point loss at Ohio State.
k) an 18 point loss at LSU, outscored by 27 points in the last 14 minutes.

Just food for thought.

[35TangoTango]

Since we're calm again, I'd like to add my mid-season analysis.

The three frontrunners:

Texas - good all 'round, great inside! In the game I saw tonight, the guards played such a secondary role (the animals inside and the feeders outside). http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/wink.gif The NCAA is a guards' tournament, and if Texas expects to go far, they have to have more on the outside.

Tech - For the Tech I have seen, I would have to agree with Ol' John Henry here. Very talented - the starting five (or four of them) fit together like puzzle pieces, and complement each other so well. Also Pierson, who is probably the most talented player in the conference, has submerged herself in the team and become the consumate team player. Based on what I have seen myself, I would say they are a little soft defensively. But the loss at Texas seems to have built something of a fire under them - I don't think Colorado would put down their defense! To go far, they must maintain this fire to complement their talent.

KState - When they're all there, they are pretty hard to beat. If Pierson isn't the most talented, Wecker is. But tonight pointed out how thin they are at guard. They have to have everyone healthy to compete (and I hope they all recover right after this weekend). Guard play could be the same problem for them (in the NCAA's) as Texas.

I think Oklahoma has carved out a niche for itself in fourth place. Why? They can't beat the top three, but they have stayed close to both Tech and Texas, and no one else seems to be able to. I disagree with J.H.'s assesment of OU - the problem is not talent, it's experience; and they will get stronger down the stretch rather than wither.

ISU just pulled the big upset, but they're a one man team and most people can beat a one man team. I could be wrong, but I think that tonight was more due to KState's thinness and health than to ISU's real strength (of course we haven't beaten them in six years, so what would I know).

Colorado, unlike Oklahoma, can't run with the big dogs. Blowouts by both Tech and KState tell the tale.

Baylor - was better than OU in every respect but the score, but tonight at Colorado shows their position. They will lose a couple more that they are not supposed to.

The rest are spoilers.

[JohnHenry]

textom-
All in the December past, friend. The New Mexico game was a disaster that shouldn't have happened, the Ohio St. game was a couple of bad breaks; we just flat weren't ready for BYU and LSU closed out very well at home - all good learning experiences. I think we turned a corner and ramped it up after the LSU debacle - getting Jamie back has really meant alot as well. I'm sure we'll have another letdown somewhere - probably Waco or Ames - but I don't think anyone is gonna rip us again like LSU or BYU did.

We've really started to gel at the right time, and Lord knows the tools are all there.

soonerman -
ok, you've got some nice young shooters, but you need an inside game; OU rode their guards to the F4 last year but couldn't muster the beef to close the deal - live by the 3, die by the 3, some say...i'll take a consistent post game if I have to choose.
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[This message has been edited by JohnHenry (edited 01-29-2003).]

[Jimi]

I'm not Texas's number one fan but I think you have to take into account the mixing in of Jamie Carey and her battles with illness. She is the real deal and when healthy makes a MAJOR difference in the Longhorn attack as well as its defense. I also think Stacy is one of the top centers anywhere. She has a nice touch and knows how to use her strength. She is more effective, however, when the horns have solid guard play.

Carey is a BIG key to Texas and she is just getting into good health and the flow of things. Do not confuse what we could bring to Hilton tonight with what we delivered to the horns at Bramlage. The Longhorns were most definately NOT a poor road team in that game and I expect them to continue to power up in the next month. They are very dangerous at home or away. They sure were not intimidated by 13,340 fans or KSU on the road this past weekend. I sort of go with "what have you done lately" rather than put too much focus on early season games. I guess time will tell.

[Bevo]

Originally posted by textom:
You may be right; Texas is always tough at home. But I'm still not convinced about Texas' toughness on the road.

h) a 16 point loss at unranked BYU.
i) a 7 point loss at unranked New Mexico.
j) a 4 point loss at Ohio State.
k) an 18 point loss at LSU, outscored by 27 points in the last 14 minutes.

Just food for thought.

Let's move now from non-conference to conference play and have the second course of this meal.

-an 11 point win at Missouri, with the 'Horns outscoring the Tigers 18-7 over the final 3:36.
-a 27 point win at Texas A&M.
-a 2 point loss at Kansas State, giving the 3rd ranked team in the country all they could handle in front of 13,000+.
-a 6 point win at OU, holding off a furious home-team rally in the closing minutes.

I submit that the lessons from the non-conference losses have been well-learned by this team and are now paying dividends in terms of mental toughness and competitive spirit. Nevertheless, respect must be earned one game at a time. Therefore, the only game about which Texas must be concerned is the next one - A&M in Austin on Sunday and keeping that undefeated home record going. That, of course, will keep us at the head of the pack and one step closer to the goal of a Big XII conference title.

http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/ut.gif Texas Women's Basketball
Earning Respect-One game at a time.

[Bball Girl]

I see TEXAS, right now, as the only team with all of the following going for them:

a) toughness (anybody else in Big 12 beaten 2 top 10 teams yet?)
no, but until last night neither KSU or Tech have lost to anyone outside of the Top 20, and Texas has only one road win against a Top 20 team..OU by 6
b) strong, consistent defense
When KSU is healthy..you bet. Did you see Tech's defense against CU...sorry we're all tied here.
c) plenty of talent
KSU's starters are as talented as any team in the country and Tech is playing deeper than any team in the Big 12 maybe in the country
d) great coach
Patterson
Sharp

e) DEPTH
KSU's weakness..
Tech see c)
f) solid floor leadership with Jamie back
Grant, Pierson, Perkins, Ritchie, Ayers, Ohlde, Wecker, Koehn, etc.
g) Stacy Stephens
see f)


I see nothing that separates Texas out as THE team in the Big 12.
Looks to me to be a horse race between these three very good teams. It's going to depend on which team or teams can leverage their strengths enough to account for their weaknesses.

KSU's weakness -- depth
Tech's weakness -- mental toughness
Texas's weakness -- winning on the road

Now about OU

OU..lack of talent...give me a break. They have talent to spare, they're a little short of experience but Jackson was in San Antonio last year, she's seen the mt and believe me while OU might not be there this year, they're going to win some games. Welch a freshman scored 20 pt against TX...

So, they lost to Texas at home by 6, the box score was pretty even.. Texas had 43 boards to OU's 42 boards, the FG% for both teams under 40%..the only big difference were the # of fouls, the FT % and the 6 pt difference. I'd say that's pretty close game. OU were 5-12 at the FT line...there's the game.

[JohnHenry]

OK, now -

never meant to imply that Texas had "separated itself from the pack". Obviously they haven't. I was thinking more about the big picture and the various teams' long-term prospects over the next 5-6 weeks. My point was that it seems like Texas is the only team that has ALL of those upsides right now. Look, no one is gonna do us ugly again like LSU did. Our D has become a real point of pride now - hell, it's the reason we're 6-1 in conference right now. Playing us is difficult for any team now because of all those factors .

We beat Tech because we disrupted their offensive rhythm and got them frustrated very early, and kept it going all day. The Raiders couldn't get their mojo back. We, on the other hand, have no real offensive rhythm to disrupt - JC's O has always been an old-fashioned half-court, grind it out type of deal that relies mostly on patience and shot selection. Not flashy, but because of our D, teams have had a hard time building big leads on us and if you stay close and you have smart players on your side, you've always got a way to win, WHEREVER AND WHOMEVER YOU PLAY.
If we can maintain our defensive intensity, we can suffer some off nights with our shooting.

RE: OU
Okay okay, you guys have some talent! Geez...
You still need scoring in the paint http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/wink.gif

Realistically, I see us losing probably 2 more: Tech (they have March 2 circled in RED) and 1 of either ISU, CU, or Baylor. Someone will get hot and catch us napping.
Will 13-3 give us a title? Maybe...a lot of ball to be played yet.

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[Jennifer]

Originally posted by Bball Girl:
Now about OU

OU..lack of talent...give me a break. They have talent to spare, they're a little short of experience but Jackson was in San Antonio last year, she's seen the mt and believe me while OU might not be there this year, they're going to win some games. Welch a freshman scored 20 pt against TX...



Thank you Bball girl! Finally, someone 'unbiased' (i.e. not a Sooner fan) pointing this out. Just like after last season, predictions didn't often include OU because of who they lost. And after the injuries, they seemed to have been cast aside by many w/o any focus on who they have on the roster healthy and eligible. Sure, some freshmen are being cast into roles sooner than expected; others are stepping up and grabbing the opportunity in front of them (Lauren Shoush for example). I still believe they have all the tools to be a competetive team come March. They have good shooters, their defense is tough. Now if only they can all get the shots to be falling on the same night consistantly.
I'm not saying they are the top of the Big 12--they're not, but that doesn't mean they can't upset a top team and it NOT be a fluke.
And then the coaching...I really think that any comments (not on this board, though maybe by other fans who post on this board) about Coach Coale being a 'one year wonder' or something like that should be put to rest after what she's done with her team this year.

[swok34]

RE: OU
Okay okay, you guys have some talent! Geez...
You still need scoring in the paint

I agree and I'm sure Coach Coale does, too http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/wink.gif

and, welcome to Hoopscoop, JohnHenry.




[This message has been edited by swok34 (edited 01-30-2003).]

[Bball Girl]

...the point is that we all have great coaches, we all have players just as good as Stephens in their own way (I'm a big fan of Stephen and Carey by the way), we all have amazing talent and we can all kick each other's butt on any given day. It's one of most competitive conferences in the country and it ain't over until March. I'm thrilled to have Tech's season end at home against UT and KSU...I can't imagine a better way to end a season.

[YCN]

Regarding the talent issue at OU, right from the first game against Tennessee it seemed apparent to me that this was likely OU's most athletic and talented team thus far. The principal limiting factors in this year's edition of the Sooners are a lack of muscle in the post, a team of players learning how to play together as a team, unforced and careless turnovers, and frequent "dropouts" of individual players from scoring.

Of all those factors, the only one that can't be improved this year is the lack of physical presence down low. Every game these players are learning each other's strengths and tendencies better and better; they are starting (although it's been a painful process) to cut down on the turnovers - an indication of increased focus and intensity; and as far as the shooting goes, that's another story.

I'm sure that Coach Coale has been throwing so much at her team that many if not most of them have literally been distracted from the task of shooting the basketball. From the bios of the players, I know that they are all good-to-excellent shooters, so this part should come around reasonably soon. If Sherri's team "gets it" and really starts to come together and play like one, then they will be formidable, to say the least.

Having said that, If OU happens to run into a dominant inside team with quick guards that know how to defend the perimeter, they will likely exit the NCAA tourney post-haste.

Gee, that team sounds a lot like the UConn team from last year!

[JohnHenry]

ttt - Like to hear some analysis from other devoted followers - homer posts allowed... http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/wink.gif