Way Too Early

[swok34]

to be making these kinds of predictions:

In fact, the lack of big surprises thus far has taken some of the thrill out of the Big 12 race. Coaches are quick to point out that "it's still early" and "anything can happen." But, c'mon, if you've seen K-State, Tech, UT or Colorado play, then you know it's only a four-team race to the finish.

Injuries have depleted Oklahoma's troops. Baylor has an impressive record, but the Bears have already lost to Tech and UT. The bottom six teams just aren't good enough to challenge the top six over the course of a 16-game schedule.

I definitely think Texas Tech, Kansas State and Texas are locks for the Top 3 seeds......I think Seeds 4,5,6 are a toss-up between Colorado, Baylor and Oklahoma.....OU and BU played one less game than Colorado, OU and Colorado have both faced the top opponent in their division....Baylor has had to face 2 of the key opponents.

I know I'm as much as homer as anyone, but I do believe OU has as much a chance to finish #4 as either Colorado or Baylor.
Never underestimate the "newbies" when they "really get it figured out.....that goes for Baylor, also.

[Guns Up!]

Here's the entire article from the Dallas Morning News:

No surprise: It?s a four-team race
Kansas State, UT, Texas Tech, Colorado pulling away from field

01/20/2003

Turning at the quarter pole of the Big 12 race, the leaders are Kansas State, Texas Tech and Texas. All three are neck-and-neck with Colorado right behind them. This is no surprise.

In fact, the lack of big surprises thus far has taken some of the thrill out of the Big 12 race. Coaches are quick to point out that ?it?s still early? and ?anything can happen.? But, c?mon, if you?ve seen K-State, Tech, UT or Colorado play, then you know it?s only a four-team race to the finish.

Injuries have depleted Oklahoma?s troops. Baylor has an impressive record, but the Bears have already lost to Tech and UT. The bottom six teams just aren?t good enough to challenge the top six over the course of a 16-game schedule.

Last year, there were plenty of eyebrow-raising events in the conference season?s first few weeks. Colorado started off 0-3 before finishing in third place. Iowa State clipped the Stacey Dales-led Sooners in Ames, Iowa. Missouri got off to a strong 3-1 start, which included a win over Tech, but eventually finished tied for ninth.

?I think it?s been pretty much what you would have expected,? Tech coach Marsha Sharp said.

Let?s assume for a moment that Kansas State, Texas, Tech and Colorado finish in the top four, the order being irrelevant right now. Getting a first-round bye in the Big 12 tournament does not necessarily mean a free pass to the semifinals. That?s where other teams in the league can take some solace.

No. 6-seed Iowa State reached the semis last season. No. 5 Nebraska and No. 6 UT got that far in 2000. The lowest seeds to win the tournament were No. 3 Colorado in 1997 and No. 3 Iowa State in 2001.

The conference standings will shake out a little this week, beginning Wednesday when two 4-0 teams ? Tech and UT ? face each other in Austin.

Two of the last three Tech-UT games in Austin have gone into overtime. The game could be historical for UT coach Jody Conradt, because she could win career victory No. 800. Only Tennessee?s Pat Summitt has more career victories than Conradt.

Texas then turns around and faces Kansas State on Saturday. The Wildcats, also 4-0, will have plenty of time to prepare for Stacy Stephens and Co. because they are off until then.

Sunday is big, too. Oklahoma travels to Baylor, and Tech makes it way to Colorado.

A surprise doesn?t have to be an upset. Look at Texas? win over Baylor. How many people expected it would be by 20 points? That?s why fans should keep a close eye on how these games unfold the next seven days. The surprises could be there, far below the surface level.

[ChipperF1]

I don't see as much as a four team race, as a five tiered race.

At the top there is Texas Tech, Texas and Kansas State. Those three are in the sphere of competing for the conference title and perhaps the National Championship.

The second tier? Colorado, the way they are now, without a relable inside attack and Oklahoma. I feel the article gives short shrift to Oklahoma. That team will be a part of the process come March. Both of the these teams will make the NCAA draw.

After that. It gets murky. Baylor, Missouri and Iowa State could be fighting for one seat on the NCAA starship OR a spot in the WNIT. Iowa State could be falling into the fourth tier. All three could find themselves not playing in the postseason.

The fourth tier. Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M. All of these teams are backfielders. But all three look competitive in the right situation and could scrounge up enough wins to maybe get to the WNIT. All five teams in this tier could breakout and at least win the Enron cup.

The fifth tier. Nebraska. I would not be surprised if the Huskers did not win a conference game this year. They don't even look as good as KU, OSU or TAMU right now. BUT, if they can buck up, they could beat those teams are perhaps have it to go with Missouri or Iowa State.

Again, I see a lot of false disappointment because the bar has been raised from last season. Folks, we have to remember that last season is something most conferences rarely have outside of the SEC. And even the SEC has a year where teams fall back.
All that has really happened is the Big 12 is more inline with most of the major conferences. You have a group of highly competitive teams, a group in the middle, a group at the back, and maybe one team who is way off pace. However you also have three team who can take a serious shot at Atlanta, and not many conferences can make that claim. Look at the Top 10.
The SEC has three (Tennessee, LSU, Arkansas)
The Big 12 has two (Texas Tech, Kansas State)
The ACC has two (Duke, North Carolina)
The Pac 10 has one (Stanford)
The Big 10 has one (Purdue)
The Big East has one (Connecticut)

Last year was a rare year will so many stars were in alignment. Its special its great. But, the conference don't make the NCAA tournament, individual teams do. And the Big 12 individual teams in the top half are very good. As far as the pack goes. The pack has dropped off, but I'd still see the Big 12 has more competitive top to bottom as most of the country.

[YCN]

What did Brian Davis do, just look at the standings and pick the top four and decide the race is all figured out? That's stupid.

Any way you look at it, I think it is definitely a two-team duel to the death between Tech and K-State. Any team that manages to sneak into that mix will have had a season well above reasonable expectations.

And I view it as a four-team race for third among Texas, Colorado, OU and Baylor, with Baylor trailing and Colorado having an edge over Texas and OU. Everybody else is in a race to escape the bottom half, and I'd have to give Missouri the early edge for seventh.

----------

I decided to list the toughest remaining games for Texas, CU, OU and Baylor, and assign a 1-5 numerical rating of my opinion of the difficulty of each game. The ratings are defined as follows:

1 - Easy win
2 - Favored but could lose
3 - Fairly even
4 - Difficult to win
5 - Very difficult to win


Here's the list:

Texas
Texas Tech 4
at Kansas State 5
at Oklahoma 4
Colorado 2
at Baylor 3
at Texas Tech 5
Oklahoma 3

Colorado
at Texas Tech 5
Baylor 2
Oklahoma 3
at Texas 4
Kansas State 4

Oklahoma
Texas 2
Kansas State 4
Baylor 2
at Colorado 3
at Texas Tech 5
at Texas 3

Baylor
Oklahoma 3
at Colorado 4
Kansas State 4
at Oklahoma 5
Texas Tech 4
Texas 3


So here are the difficulty averages I came up with:

Texas - 3.7 average for 7 games
Colorado - 3.6 average for 5 games
Oklahoma - 3.2 average for 6 games
Baylor - 3.8 for 6 games


It would appear that OU has a slightly easier remaining schedule than the other teams, which have schedules of about the same difficulty. If you assign each game rated below 3 as a win, each 3 as a home win, and each 4 or 5 a loss, then this would be the expectations of wins and losses for these critical games:

Texas 2-5
Colorado 3-2
Oklahoma 2-4
Baylor 2-4


Added to their current records, that would leave the standings (not counting any games remaining games against Baylor, Missouri, A&M, ISU, OSU, Nebraska or KU) as follows:

Colorado 6-3
Texas 6-5
Oklahoma 4-5
Baylor 3-6

----------

Now this is all just an exercise in judgement, but it certainly appears that CU and Texas have a slight edge for third and fourth place in the Big 12. The real kicker to this argument is when you bring in the other games against the (presumed) bottom six of the Big 12.

Let's just say for the purposes of this argument that each of CU, UT, OU and BU all win every remaining game against those teams. That would put the final W-L records of these four teams as follows:

Colorado 13-3
Texas 11-5
Oklahoma 11-5
Baylor 10-6

It is pretty obvious from those records that the real keys to where these teams finish within the conference is in each team's abilities to win against the others on the road, and to avoid any home or road losses against the other six teams. Of course any wins anywhere against KSU or Tech would be huge, but especially damaging would be losses to any of the bottom six, especially at home.

----------

So here is where I place the top six teams at this time:

1. Tech/KSU
3. Colorado
4. Texas
5. Oklahoma
6. Baylor

Actually I think that either Texas or Oklahoma could finish third, but I think that CU would have to have an unexpected tumble or two for that to happen. I don't think it is at all likely that Baylor could finish any higher than 4th.

[This message has been edited by YCN (edited 01-20-2003).]

[elfdenmom]

YCN, I like you analysis, but I think you were a little short on weighting Texas. They are a lot better than last year and should really figure in the final Big 12 mix.

[YCN]

I agree to some extent, elfdenmom, but road losses at BYU, New Mexico and Ohio State in my evaluation pretty much almost completely nullify the home win over Tennessee.

Texas has struggled mightily on the road this year, and they have remaining road games at Kansas State, OU, Baylor and Texas Tech, and home games against Tech, CU and OU.

I think that Texas, like OU, is a year away from really competing for the conference championship. Maybe I'm wrong, but it is pretty rare for a team with underclassmen contributing so many minutes to win the Big 12 conference. KSU certainly wasn't able to do it last year, and this year they are one of the best teams in the country.

If Texas wins two of the next three, I reserve the right to change my mind, but for now, I still have them finishing 3rd or 4th in the race.

[swok34]

I think Texas will end up third, or at least with the #3 seed in the tourney. They always play BETTER when they hit conference play and a lot of their freshmen got valuable playing experience last year.

[Cory]

What fun! I love the analysis and speculation.
But, come Sunday morning, the Texas Longhorns
will be alone in first place in the Big 12,
or they won't.

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