OU- for the sake of discussion

[BenEClone]

OU is 8-2 with losses to Tenn and UConn, for which no one would find fault, and has victories over ordinary teams. Considering the number of healthy, proven performers on the roster, is OU legitimately ranked (15/16), or is the ranking residual from last year and OU hasn't lost to a lower ranked team? (yet? http://hoopscoop.net/ubb/wink.gif)

[swok34]

Actually OU started out the year ranked 22nd or 23rd, so I think this group has done it on their own merits. Beating a higher ranked North Carolina team helped tremendously and finding their way to the championship game in Hawaii vs Connecticut. Folks had picked against them for both the North Carolina game (and that was when Caton and Erin were still uninjured) and TCU.

I was mind-boggled that they beat North Carolina in the same week they lost Caton and Erin to injuries......

I don't know whether they are over-ranked or under-ranked OR have any clue how they will perform in the Big XII. The Stanford game on January 3 is their next key game, IMO....and that's just prior to the opening of the Big XII season. They finish at home with SMU and SE MO State, which they should win.

I haven't seen a whole lot of other teams play, but I think the field is a lot more wide open this year and who will be the four teams that will come in for that brazen finish.

[Jennifer]

Well, they did beat North Carolina, who is currently ranked above them (13 ESPN/AP). And more importantly, at least at this point in the season, they have beaten the teams they were supposed to beat. They played Uconn close for a half, and hung fairly close in there for another half.
Look at those ranked above them. Notre Dame has lost to unranked DePaul. Purdue just lost to UCSB. Who has LSU beaten?

They haven't done anything to be ranked lower...as long as they keep doing what they're doing

(and I had more to say than this but am at work and distracted)

[YCN]

I definitely think some of it is residual, but it doesn't hurt that OU beat North Carolina, currently ranked #13 in both polls.

But when you look at the bigger picture, it is hard to justify their ranking based on statistics. For instance, OU isn't in the top 30 teams in the country in scoring offense, scoring defense, scoring margin, field goal percentage, field goal percentage defense, free throw percentage, rebound margin, three-point field goal percentage, three-point field goals per game, turnovers (fewest) per game, assists per game, blocked shots per game, steals per game, personal fouls (fewest) per game, or won-lost percentage.

Individually OU fares a little better, with Maria Villarroel #46 in scoring and #4 in field goal percentage, and Theresa Schuknecht #23 in free throw percentage.

So it would seem that OU has been a team of smoke and mirrors, at least statistically. However, I would never underestimate a Sherri Coale coached team, regardless of what the stats say.

We'll know a whole lot more about the Sooners after their trip out to Stanford and a month of conference play. By that time we should know if this season they will sink or swim.

Personally, I expect them to make the NCAA tournament with a middling seed and a record somewhere between 20-11 and 23-9. I sure hope my expectations aren't too high, though.

[35TangoTango]

Originally posted by YCN:
But when you look at the bigger picture, it is hard to justify their ranking based on statistics.

IMHO, justifying rankings on statistics would be the littler picture. The bigger picture is won-loss and quality of opponents. The polls would seem to have OU pretty accurately placed.

So it would seem that OU has been a team of smoke and mirrors...

Don't know about the mirrors, but the smoke would be Jackson and Villarroel!

Personally, I expect them to make the NCAA tournament with a middling seed and a record somewhere between 20-11 and 23-9. I sure hope my expectations aren't too high, though.

Let's see two losses now, and if they lost to Stanford and a loss in the big 12 tournament, they would have 4 losses outside of conference regular season play. So you are figuring between 5 and 7 losses in conference. I don't think your expectations are too high.

[elfdenmom]

I really do not think that great statistics in individual categories are nearly as important as team performance. For one thing you may be very deep in quality players. If they spread playing time around amongst the players, no one player is likely to have outstanding stats, and yet the team, as a whole, may have a great record.

[YCN]

Just for perspective, I though it would be useful to put up last year's complete statistics for the Sooners, with top 30 rankings in italics:

Scoring offense #11, scoring margin #6, field goal percentage #19, three-point field goal percentage #36, three-point field goals per game #58, free throw percentage #27, rebound margin #56, blocked shots per game #308, turnovers per game #109, personal fouls (fewest) per game #95, assists per game #19, steals per game #35, scoring defense #67, field goal percentage defense #49, won-loss percentage #3.

[35TangoTango]

Ok, YCN, your point is well made. That contrasts last year's team and this year's pretty well.

However, while looking at last year's statistics tells you the Sooners were good, it certainly doesn't indicate in any way that they were #2 in the country. So while there is nothing in this year's stats that says OU is number 15, there is nothing there to preclude it, either.

There are just so many imponderables about this team, no one knows what to expect. As you said, Stanford and a month of conference will tell us a lot more.

My goal for the year would be to be in the top 16, so we could be seeded number one in our own NCAA sub-regional. That would give us a good chance at making the sweet 16, which would keep us on the national radar screen until next year, which has every possibility of being another final four run!

However, to be in the top 16, we probably would have to finish in the top 3 of our conference.

[YCN]

soonerman, intangibles must be huge in basketball. While last year's "ending" stats are overall pretty good, you are right in saying that they do not reflect a (unanimous) #2 team.

And I certainly don't want to disrespect the hard work being done by this wounded team this year, and didn't intend to by showing how they aren't ranked in the top 30 in any team category.

Basketball is so much about heart and teamwork and facing the challenge in front of you every single game. I guess that is one of the reasons I like women's basketball, because the Sooners under Coach Coale taught me to remember again what I liked most about the game.

Win or lose, this ought to be an enormously interesting year for the Sooners. I see one heck of a lot of talent and athleticism on the team, but I just can't - yet - believe that it will lead us anywhere truly magical.

But there is still time for me to be convinced, and I definitely want to be.

[35TangoTango]

Originally posted by YCN:
And I certainly don't want to disrespect the hard work being done by this wounded team this year, and didn't intend to by showing how they aren't ranked in the top 30 in any team category.

No disrespect taken. What you have shown us is that they may be winning, but certainly not the same way they were last year. So the real question is what does a clawed and scratched out 9-2 record mean? Top 16 at the end of the year? Top 25?

The one thing the stats don't show is the way the team has reacted when challenged down the stretch. In tight games, these freshmen and sophomores have played like juniors and seniors in the last minutes. They have been more poised and more on top of their game than their opponents. That could be worth a game or two during the season.

Also, there is still a lot of upside to come. Chelsi has just begun to emerge (and the coaches are still thinking up ways to use her strengths). Maria was very one-dimensional in the early games, and is just beginning to polish her off-ball skills. Theresa is tremendous every other game. This team is 9-2 now, and still has more possibility of improvement than any other team in the conference.