Is the Big XII down this year from last?

[Court Jester]

I was just wondering what everyone's opinions are on this. I think it might be down a little but still a very tough conference.

[swok34]

hmmmmmmmmm, it's December 3rd, meaning that games are really just now underway or in other words, I have no guess one way or another.

[elfdenmom]

I would have to say it is down a little considering our collective records against other conferences as compared to last year. Of course it is early days and it is the end of the year that matters.

[Jennifer]

To early to say. There's still a lot of games left to be played. We have quite a few young or new players in position to be impact players once their feet get a little wet, though they may take their licks early on.
Ask again in April.

[ChipperF1]

Down? No. Rebuilding? Yes. And there's a difference.

There's a lot of fresh faces starting to step to the fore and that great for the league in the long run. But I look at the top teams in the league and they are right there with the best of every conference. And I believe in the end of the year one team from this league will do what no team in the conference has ever done. One of our top teams will bring that National Championship home. I see Texas Tech doing that job.

I think we have a great league, but one shouldn't automatically downgrade the league because it can't match last year. It's a rarity when any league save the SEC can match what the Big 12 did last year. Best in win pct and RPI, and 7 teams in the top 16 seeds? That's a tall order to try and duplicate and its impossible to do year-in year out. You have to have so many stars in the constellation line up just right.

[35TangoTango]

If we are going to be real honest, the results have to be somewhat disappointing up to now. What is our performance against ranked teams?

I can't remember - was Washington ranked, and did K-State beat any ranked teams in the NIT?

[This message has been edited by soonerman (edited 12-03-2002).]

[RaiderPower1]

Washington was not ranked but was picked to finish second to Stanford in the Pac10

[DblT81]

In September these were what I thought the pundits would consider key non conference games for the B12:

Here are some key matchups I saw:
<pre style="font-size: 8pt">
OU 11/10/2002 Tennessee Knoxville, Tenn. [LOSS]
TT 11/10/2002 Louisiana Tech at Knoxville [LOSS]
TT 11/24/2002 WASHINGTON [Wash top 25? No. WIN]
[KSU played #11 Penn State in the finals of the WNIT. The best league win so far
by a Big 12 team (OU over NC is a good one too)]
KSU 11/29/2002 Temple at Stanford, Calif. [Staley’s program rising,
they may be ranked later in the year....WIN]
CU 11/30/2002 VILLANOVA Boulder [LOSS]
OU 11/30/2002 North Carolina [WIN]
KSU 11/30/2002 at Stanford, Calif. [LOSS]
OU 12/01/2002 Connecticut [LOSS]
This is the rest of what looked l
ISU 12/04/2002 Iowa @ Iowa City, Iowa [Iowa is
not top 25 as it turns out]
UT 12/10/2002 TCU [Not top 25, yet]
OU 12/14/2002 TCU Ft. Worth, Texas [see above]
ISU 12/22/2002 Washington Seattle, Wash. [see above]
ISU 12/29/2002 Duke (South Padre Island Shootout)
UT 12/21/2002 TENNESSEE
CU 12/21/2002 SOUTHERN CAL [WIN over USC by KSU in WNIT]
UT 12/28/2002 @ LSU Baton Rouge, La.
MU 12/29/2002 Iowa Iowa City, Iowa [Not top 25]
TT 01/02/2003 RUTGERS Lubbock [not top 25]
OU 01/03/2003 Stanford Stanford, Calif.
KSU 01/05/2003 Iowa - Big 12/Big Ten Challenge Manhattan, Kan.
[Wish it was the better B10 teams-Purdue, Minn, or Penn St]
</pre>

I suspect Creighton, Drake and New Mexico may be better teams than Washington.

BYU is top 25 but UT lost that game.

It is early, but I agree that the losses above outnumber the good wins.



[This message has been edited by DblT81 (edited 12-03-2002).]

[Jennifer]

Originally posted by DblT81:
UT 12/10/2002 TCU [Not top 25, yet]
OU 12/14/2002 TCU Ft. Worth, Texas [see above]


TCU was ranked #25 in the latest ESPN/Coaches Poll. With a loss to Wisc. Green Bay, they won't stay there.

25. TCU 2-2 92 21
Last Week: Lost to No. 16 Arkansas 76-66 (11/25), Def. Holy Cross 68-54 (11/28), Lost to No. 6 Purdue 93-74 (11/29)
This Week: Lost to Wisc. Green Bay 60-58 (12/3), 12/5 vs. SMU

[TXSNOS]

Originally posted by soonerman:
I can't remember - was Washington ranked, and did K-State beat any ranked teams in the NIT?

I think Penn State is ranked.

TXs N Os



[This message has been edited by TXSNOS (edited 12-04-2002).]

[swok34]

Penn State was ranked, I'm guessing either #12 or #14 when they played Kansas State in the final....right now, they are #11 in the AP.

[35TangoTango]

Michelle Voepel's take: http://espn.go.com/ncw/columns/voepel/1472691.html

I might have been wrong about the Big 12. I wrote a few weeks ago that the league was not going to be as down as many thought it would be, and since then the Not-So-Jumbo Dozen has losses to Montana State (Baylor), Louisiana-Lafayette (Missouri) and Northwestern State (Texas A&M). Before Big Sky, Sun Belt and Southland fans say, "Quit dissing us!'' understand that I can't give any joy to those who want to hate the Big 12 without somebody getting dissed. Also Texas was beaten soundly by BYU and Iowa State by Iowa. To their credit, though, K-State's, Oklahoma's and Texas Tech's combined losses are to Stanford, Tennessee, Connecticut and Louisiana Tech.

[carolann]

Also Texas was beaten soundly by BYU and Iowa State by Iowa. To their credit, though, K-State's, Oklahoma's and Texas Tech's combined losses are to Stanford, Tennessee, Connecticut and Louisiana Tech.

And Texas' only loss is an opening game on the road to BYU.

BYU
(1) defeated ISU to get to the sweet 16 last year
(2) is currently ranked #19 in the AP
(3) is undefeated.

LA Tech
(1)lost in the first round of last year's NCAA tourney
(2)is now ranked #15 in the AP (may drop)
(3)lost to Western Kentucky and was destroyed by Tennessee in Knoxville.

We'll see what happens today in New Mexico. Conradt was positive about the team's progress in her talk after the SWT game but made it a point to say that the game against New Mexico 'is not a make or break game' to the Longhorns. Conradt talked more about the game as an indication of whether or not the team has improved.

[Bevo]

I agree with Voepel's take. She is just about the only ESPN analyst/columnist that actually has informed, intelligent opinions on the Big XII. I posted here at the end of last year that - from top to bottom - the conference would not be as strong this year. Just too many key players graduated. The top teams may be just as good, but I don't think the teams in the middle of the pack are as good. Heck, last year we had middle of the pack teams like Texas and Texas Tech making the Sweet 16. I don't see it happening this year - but hopefully I'm wrong.

Carolann has a good point in the BYU/La Tech comparison as well. And La Tech lost to Tennessee on their home court in Ruston (not Knoxville).

[carolann]

Carolann's point is lost now that Texas has also lost to New Mexico! Texas still has some very tough non-conference games. If the Horns can win a couple, they'll have some 'quality non-conference' wins for themselves and the conference.

[two cents]

I thought the conference would take a few on the chin this year, but the blows have been harder and more frequent than I had expected. The relative strength of our conference, prior to post-season, will be evaluated on how the teams fare in the non-conference portion of the schedule. Right now, the Big 12 is ranked 8th by conference RPI behind the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West among others. There is plenty of time for that ranking to improve and it probably will, and opportunities to win key games remain. Still, I don't think that the better teams in the Big 12 will be able to demonstrate the kind of dominance over the better teams of other top conferences as happened last year. Unfortunately, it doesn't help much in the overall evaluation of the conference for teams to improve significantly in January and February. That may happen for several teams this year, because of the gaps and roles that are being filled by new players. More teams were farther along in their development at the outset of last season. Chipper's point that the conference is rebuilding is valid. Even though it won't help in seeding or number of teams invited to NCAA play, late season improvements by some teams might enable the Big 12 to spring a few surprises in March.

Two years ago, the Big 12 may have been a teensy bit better than the SEC. Last year, this was far and away the best conference in the country. This year, we may be scrapping to claim 3rd or 4th place. Next year, I believe the conference will be as tough or tougher than last year, particularly because the bottom teams are likely to rise up a bit. I do agree that the top few teams in this conference will, this and every year, be among the best in the country.

Here are my team by team impressions of how the conference is stacking up this year compared to last. In general, I'm not speculating too much about how the teams compare to one another, or how good they really are in the national picture (because I just don't know). Instead, it is mainly just my evaluation of how each team's non-conference record this year will stack up to last year, so it's relative for each team. I have included wins and losses so far this season, last season's non-conference record, and the more challenging opponents remaining on the schedule:

Iowa St (W-St. Francis L-Drake, Iowa, No. Iowa)---Last Year: 12-0--down.
remaining: Washington, Duke.
I believe they will prove tough down the stretch, but for now they're not matching last year's pace. A win against Duke would be something to crow about.

Oklahoma St (W-Portland St L-ORU, Tulsa, Wichita St, Wisc-Milw, Pepperdine)---LY: 8-5--down.
remaining: ORU, Michigan St., Arkansas.
Last year, OSU had a rocky non-conference record, but improved enough to be a solid opponent in conference play. So much so that if they had gotten off to a better start, they could have been an NCAA team with a shot at winning a game. This year, they've had a much worse beginning, and I don't hold out hope for them to become competitive this season. Division I seems to have surprised Coach Goodenough, and I wonder if she has any idea what's about to hit come January. Hopefully, she is a quick study and perseverant, and will be able to move the program forward in future years. Before the season I wouldn't have guessed it, but right now this seems to be the worst team in the conference. There are some good players on the team, so it may not end up that way, but....

Nebraska (W-Grambling, Rice, Texas So. L-Creighton, Drake)---LY: 10-3--steady.
remaining: Cincinnati, Penn St.
Maybe a smaller, more committed group of players will make up for the loss of substantial talent. Maybe not. If they just do reasonably well, they will be a feel-good story for the conference. They may not match last year's team, but I want them to do so and it's too early to know, so I'll be optimistic.

Texas A&M (W-Ft. Wayne, Santa Clara, Prairie View, Ark PB, Wright St L-Northwestern St)---LY: 8-4--steady or better.
remaining: UT-Arlington, Miami, Houston, Charlotte.
Last year the Aggies showed occasional signs of vibrant life. They haven't demonstrated anything yet, and losing Banahan was a blow, but my hunch is this team will be better. They need to show it against Miami, Houston, and Charlotte, all of which are road games.

Kansas (W-UTEP, CS-Fullerton, San Diego, Texas So. L-W. Illinois)---LY: 4-8 (DI)--up (surely).
remaining: Wichita St., Creighton.
They were pretty atrocious even in non-conference last season. They've already matched their number of DI non-conference wins. Things are lookin' up.

Missouri (W-SWMS, Bradley, McNeese St. L-SMU, La-Lafeyette, Austin Peay)---LY: 9-2--down unfortunately.
remaining: No. Iowa, Illinois, Iowa, St. Louis.
Last year, they lost only two non-conference games. They've already exceeded that with a ways to go. To me, this is the biggest disappointment in the league. I didn't know where OSU might end up after the coaching change, but I thought Mizzou had a good opportunity to get back to where they were two years ago. That still might happen, but if it does, the improvement will probably occur during conference play rather than before.

Baylor (W-Princeton, Alcorn St., Texas So., San Jose St, SE La, Ark PB L-Montana St)---LY: 12-0--down slightly.
remaining: UCLA.
Well, they lost one game, and the Bears didn't lose any last year, but it's probably the only loss they will suffer. Montana St. is a decent team and the game was in Bozeman.

Oklahoma (W-Tulsa, ORU, Sam Hou St., Fordham, N. Carolina, SF Austin, Wichita St L-Tenn, Conn)---LY: 10-1--steady or down.
remaining: TCU, Stanford.
It seems heartless to say a team is down when they've only lost to Tenn and UConn. But last year's Sooners only lost to UConn, on the road, and the Huskies were none too shabby. OU was the second best team in the nation. I don't think anybody expected them to repeat that performance this year. If they beat Stanford combined with the N. Carolina win, steady would be a more accurate reflection of their non-conference results.

Texas (W-McNeese St, SW Texas, TCU L-BYU, New Mexico)---LY: 9-2--steady or down.
remaining: Tennessee, LSU, Ohio St.
If Longhorns beat the three listed above, the two losses will be forgiven if not forgotten, but that's a tougher task this year than last. Two of the three would probably be enough to equal last year's results. Personally, I don't think the two road losses are that big of a deal. Substantial improvement has been made between those games, and the coaches have to orient practices around season-long improvement rather than short-term success.

Colorado (W-Rice, Detroit, Hartford, Wyoming, Evansville, Cal L-Villanova)---LY: 10-3--steady.
remaining: Colorado St., USC.
Buffaloes might escape with a better record this year, but they played a tougher schedule last year with wins over LSU and Iowa and road losses to Vanderbilt and Florida.

Kansas State (W-Ball St, Georgia Tech, USC, Penn St, Temple, Ark PB, Mid Tenn St, Weber St. L-Stanford)---LY: 12-1--up.
remaining: Wisconsin-GB, Iowa.
Even with another loss, the WNIT wins and a tougher schedule puts KSU(oops) ahead of last year. Wildcats are helping the conference offset some of the losses. Need to beat UWGB on the road tomorrow to cement a solid pre-conference record.

Texas Tech (W-Wash, Valpo, Creighton L-La Tech)---LY: 9-2--steady.
remaining: Wyoming, Hawaii, Rutgers.
La Tech hasn't exactly shone brightly since victory over the Raiders, making the loss comparable to last year's road loss to N. Mexico. Last year, TTU lost to Duke but beat Vandy and Wisconsin. This year's schedule has no equivalent games. To hold steady, Tech needs to beat Wyoming and Hawaii on the road.

Overall---somewhat down, but as Jennifer says, "ask again in April."


[This message has been edited by two cents (edited 12-11-2002).]

[This message has been edited by two cents (edited 12-11-2002).]

[carolann]

Thank you, two cents, for an excellent summary and assessment. I think it's pretty safe to say that the 6th and 7th Big 12 conference finishers won't be getting top 4 seeds in the NCAA tournament this year. That may only increase the intensity of the conference season.

[This message has been edited by carolann (edited 12-11-2002).]

[35TangoTango]

Thanks, Two Cents! That obviously took a lot of thought and work. It is really nice to be able to see the hard facts in order to make an objective judgement.

And I think carolann is absolutely on target with her comments about the tournament seeds being more hotly contested this year.

[unkiemark]

<<Colorado (W-Rice, Detroit, Hartford, Wyoming, Evansville, Cal L-Villanova)---LY: 10-3--steady.
remaining: Colorado St., USC.
Buffaloes might escape with a better record this year, but they played a tougher schedule last year with wins over LSU and Iowa and road losses to Vanderbilt and Florida.>>

After USC they have Syracuse and Buffalo on the road before returning home to start the conference schedule with ISU. They very well could be 10-1 going into the conference game. They could also be 8-3.

Tomorrow they face Colorado State in Boulder. This should be a good indicator of how far they've come. CSU has won the last three meetings.



------------------
MarkW

[ChipperF1]

"Nebraska (W-Grambling, Rice, Texas So. L-Creighton, Drake)---LY: 10-3--steady.
remaining: Cincinnati, Penn St."

Penn State is a possible game in the San Diego tournament later this month, and given how the Toreros play at the Jenny Craig Center, I think that game will be a rough test for an unproven team who has yet to play a road game outside of Nebraska (remember, the Huskers only road game at this point was a trip to faraway Omaha to play Creighton.)

[This message has been edited by ChipperF1 (edited 12-12-2002).]

[two cents]

given how the Toreros play at the Jenny Craig Center, I think that game will be a rough test for an unproven team who has yet to play a road game outside of Nebraska

That's a good point. I only wanted to highlight some of the remaining games (more likely games in case of tournaments, Tech vs. Hawaii for instance) for teams. But I did forget how tough (OT) San Diego played undefeated Iowa State last year at home in the same tournament. I should have included them in the list.

I agree with carolann and soonerman that earning a good placement in the conference standings this year could be critically important, 5th place may be a precious commodity.

As an aside, the Big 12 conference ranking dropped again to 9th today, as C-USA slipped by. Because they are based upon many more games, conference rankings are not as volatile as team rankings, but it is still early. Some Big 12 teams scheduled the easier games early and reserved the tougher opponents as a lead up to conference play. That will help conference RPI if some of those games are won.

Also, league rankings continue to shift through conference play, because they will be affected by how opponents of Big 12 teams perform within their own conferences. Choosing opponents that are likely to do well in their own solid but less glamorized leagues is half the game of earning a good strength of schedule (SOS) rating. Good teams from those conferences, in hopes of winning an NCAA bid, will schedule opponents from the "major" conferences in an effort to bolster their own SOS. As a result, these teams start the season with so-so records, but progressively build their winning percentage as they work through conference play, continuing to add points to their opponents' SOS. Examples are Creighton (3-2, MVC), Tulsa (3-5, WAC), Ball St. (4-2, Mid Amer.).



[This message has been edited by two cents (edited 12-12-2002).]